# Tag Info

### Tossing two coins with unknown success probability

The probability is not hard to compute. I will be using the same argument as here. Simulate, all independently,  \begin{align} X_1, X_2, \dots, X_{N+1} &\sim \text{Unif}[0,1), \quad p_1:=X_1,\\ ...
• 6,032
1 vote

### Probability of a white ball chosen from a bag if there are two bags.

It's easier not to use Bayes thereom to calculate $P(W|A)$. You are being confused by the notation of $|A$. But that just says if your universe of options is pulling marbles from a bag that is $A$ ...
• 119k
1 vote
Accepted

### Finding $P(Y \leq y | Z \leq z)$ when both are conditional on a binary random variable $X$

It would be the second one. Let $A = \{Y \leq y\}$ and $B = \{Z\leq z\}$ and for $i\in\{0,1\}$ let $C_i = \{X=i\}$. Then you want to compute $P(A|B)$ (assuming $P(B\cap C_i)>0$ for each $i$). Then, ...
• 2,223
1 vote
Accepted

### MGF from a conditional distribution

We can first write conditional MGF of bernoulli random r.v.$(I\sim BN(p))$, $MGF_{I}=pe^{t}+1-p$ then given that binomial r.v. is $B(n,p)=\sum_{k=1}^{n}I_{k}$ the MGF of binomial r.v. $B(n,p)$ is, \...
1 vote

### MGF from a conditional distribution

Starting with the definition is the right step. Insert in the sum the expression for $B(x,n,p)$ ,considering for the moment $p$ to be fixed: you'll get a $M_x(t,p,n)$, that is the mgf subject to being ...
• 33.7k
1 vote
Accepted

### Likelihood of knowing the answer given y correct answers on multiple choice test

The likelihood of $\theta$ is $\mathbb P(Y=y | \theta)$ (the probability of the data given the parameter). But $Y$ is just a binomial random variable given $\theta$, where the success probability is ...
• 1,781

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