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What are the chances my wife has lupus?

*1.5 million people have lupus in America out of a population of 308 million. 90 percent are women. My wife is white, as is 63 percent of the country. Minorities are three times more likely to have lupus than whites.

*20 percent of lupus patients have a parent or sibling with lupus. My wife does not.

  • 70 percent of people with lupus have positive double-stranded anti-DNA test. My wife does not.

*70 percent of lupus cases are systemic, which is what she is diagnosed with.

What is the probability she has lupus?

So, to be simple... What are the chances given the first set of stats, the 1.5 million out of 308 million and further reducing stats, that she would have lupus (one out of 9 million, etc)?

second question, can the probablity and odds be calculated from the percentages. There was a one in five chance a sibling or parent has it, plus a 70 percent chance she would have the double dna test, but didn't. As we combine these percentages and figures, can it be deduced?