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Questions tagged [probability-theory]

Use this tag only if your question is about the modern theoretical footing for probability, for example probability spaces, random variables, law of large numbers, and central limit theorems. Use [tag:probability] instead for specific problems and explicit computations. Use [tag:probability-distributions] for specific distribution functions, and consider [tag:stochastic-processes] when appropriate.

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2k views

A difficult integral

For $\gamma>0,\delta>0$, trying to evaluate this integral: $$ I=\int_0^H\frac{e^{i t x} \log\left(\frac{H}{H-x}\right) ^{\frac{1}{\gamma }-1} \left(\left(\frac{k}{H \log \left(\frac{H}{H-x}\...
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359 views

Does this Condition on Exit Times imply $X_t$ is a Local Supermartingale?

Let $(X_t)_{t\geq 0}$ be a continuous (or càdlàg), real-valued process, and define stopping times $$\tau_{s,a,b}=\inf~ [s,\infty)\cap\{t:X_t\notin (a,b)\}.$$ We can interpret $\tau_{s,a,b}$ as the ...
16
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390 views

Multiplicative version of Mcdiarmid's inequality?

Suppose you have $n$ i.i.d. random variables taking values in $\{0,1\}$, and $X$ represents their sum. Then you can use a Chernoff bound to control the deviation of $X$ from its expectation. The ...
16
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391 views

A question connected with the decomposition of a functional on $C(X)$ on Riesz and Banach functionals

Let $X$ be a metric space and let $C(X)$ be a family of all bounded and continuous functions from $X$ in $\mathbb{R}$. We call a positive linear functional $\varphi: C(X) \rightarrow \mathbb{R}$ the ...
15
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3k views

Different versions of functional central limit theorem (aka Donsker theorem)?

I have seen several versions of functional central limit theorem (see the end of this post). I am confused, and hope someone could help to clarify their relations and differences. For example, I am ...
14
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364 views

Random sum in coupon collection

I have a problem which involves the standard coupon collector's problem to find a probability density from the generating convolution. I start by defining the problem and a few basic statistics. Let ...
11
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269 views

If $X_i∼fλ$, $Z∼\mathcal N(0,I_d)$ and $Y=X+\ell d^{-α}Z$ with $α<1/2$, then $\liminf_{d→∞}\text E\left[1∧\prod_{i=1}^d\frac{f(Y_i)}{f(X_i)}\right]=0$

Let $f\in C^3(\mathbb R)$ be positive $g:=\ln f$ $d\in\mathbb N$, $$p_d(x):=\prod_{i=1}^df(x_i)\;\;\;\text{for }x\in\mathbb R^d$$ and $\lambda^d$ denote the Lebesgue measure on $\mathcal B(\mathbb R^...
11
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2k views

Sigma-algebra generated by a set of random variables

I know from standard textbooks that "Given the measurable functions $X_i:(\Omega,\mathcal{F})\rightarrow(\Omega_i,\mathcal{A}_i)$, the $\sigma$-algebra generated by a set of random variables $(X_i; i\...
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228 views

Erratum for Billingsley’s $\textit{Probability and Measure}$, Problem 32.13

This is a verification request for a counterexample that I think I have found for Problem 32.13 on page 427 in Patrick Billingsley’s Probability and Measure textbook (third edition, but the problem ...
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955 views

probability measures vs. probability distributions vs. measure of probability density

I am learning probability theory right now and am confused about some basic concepts. I have a few questions and am wondering if you can also check if the following is correct: Suppose we have a ...
10
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238 views

A generalization of simple random walk

Suppose $S_n, n\geq 0$ is a martingale on $\mathbb{R}$ such that $S_0=0$ and $|S_{n+1}-S_{n}|\in [\frac{1}{2}, 1]$. Prove that there exists $c,C>0$ s.t. $$ \frac{c}{\sqrt{n}} \leq P( S_1\geq 0,\...
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0answers
1k views

Difficult integral for a marginal distribution

I am trying to derive a marginal probability distribution for $y$, and failed, having tried all methods to solve the following integral: $$p(y)=\int_0^{\frac{1}{\sqrt{2 \pi }}} \frac{\sqrt{\frac{2}{\...
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745 views

Distribution of the sum of absolutes values of T-distributed random variables

Where X is a r.v. following a symmetric T distribution with 0 mean and tail parameter $\alpha$. I am looking for the distribution of the n-summed independent variables $ \sum_{1 \leq i \leq n}|x_i|$....
10
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243 views

Calculating $\sum_{y=0}^x \Pr[Y= y] \Pr[Z\leq k-y]^2$ when Y,Z are binomially distributed?

Remark: I recently rewrote this post, hoping to get answers! I am analyzing the following experiment: Pick an $x \in \{0,\ldots,2k\}$ uniformly at random Pick $(2k+1)$-bit bitstring $b_1=(u,v_1)$ ...
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362 views

Do probability distributions form a comonad?

$\def\unit{{\rm unit}}\def\join{{\rm join}}$It's well known that (discrete) probability distributions form a monad. Specifically, if we let $PX$ be the set of discrete probability distributions on ...
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951 views

Idempotence and the Rao–Blackwell theorem

Original question: In the Wikipedia article on the Rao–Blackwell theorem, we read: In case the sufficient statistic is also a complete statistic, i.e., one which "admits no unbiased ...
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316 views

What is the origin of the term “Crystal Ball Condition”?

Given $p>0$ and a family of random variables $\{X_{n}\}$, the uniform integrability of $\{|X_{n}|^{p}\}$ follows from the existence of a $\delta>0$ such that $$ \sup_{n} E(|X_{n}|^{p+\delta})&...
9
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0answers
279 views

Number of primitive roots mod $p$ that are not primitive roots mod $p^2$

Consider the primitive roots of a prime $p$ in the range $1...p$ which are not primitive roots mod $p^2$. Let $n(p)$ be this number. While looking for an answer to this question, it seems that the ...
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0answers
275 views

Limit distributions for Markov chains $X\to\sqrt{U+X}$

This question spawned from a recent, very interesting problem. Let $\varphi=\frac{1+\sqrt{5}}{2}$ and $T$ denote the map on the space of continuous probability density functions supported over $\...
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0answers
235 views

Donsker's Theorem for triangular arrays

Assume we have a sequence of smooth i.i.d. random variables $(X_i)_{i=1}^{\infty}$. Given $\alpha>0$, does some sort of Donsker's Theorem hold for $\left(\frac{X_i}{n^{\alpha}}\right)_{i=1}^n$? ...
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513 views

Uncountable family of random variables

Let $\{ \xi _a \}_{a \in [0;1]}$ be a family of independent uniformly distributed on $[0;1]$ random variables on some probability space $(\Omega, \mathscr{F},P)$, indexed by a continuous parameter. ...
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0answers
706 views

the parametrization of a Gumbel in terms of a Gaussian

Extreme Value Distribution From a Gaussian. I was wondering how the parametrization of $\alpha$ and $\beta$ of a Gumbel $e^{-e^{-\frac{x-\alpha }{\beta }}}$ was done in terms of a cumulative Gaussian $...
8
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0answers
53 views

Constructing a nearly 0 stochastic process or stopping times

I'm trying to define a stochastic process $X_t$ with values on $\mathbb{R}$ which has the following properties, for the time interval $t \in [0,T]$: $X_t$ takes values in $[0,1]$ $m(\{t \in [0,T] : ...
8
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0answers
303 views

Conditions for the existence of a density with respect to Lebesgue measure

Let $X:\Omega \to \mathbb{R}$ be a random variable on a probability space $(\Omega,\mathcal{A},\mathbb{P})$ and denote by $$\chi(\xi) := \mathbb{E}e^{i \xi \cdot X}, \xi \in \mathbb{R}^d,$$ its ...
8
votes
0answers
107 views

If the difference of two independent random variables has a mean, so does each variable

This is a proof-verification request; I’m also recording this proof for my own later reference. Any feedback is appreciated. Claim: Let $X$ and $Y$ be independent, real-valued random variables on ...
8
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0answers
715 views

A random variable is symmetric if and only if its characteristic function is real-valued

Quick summary: I am stuck on the implication: $\phi_X$ real-valued $\rightarrow$ $X$ symmetric. Assume you have a probability space $(\Omega, \mathcal{F},P)$, and a random varaiable $X: \Omega \...
8
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0answers
172 views

Transformations of RV's Ensuring Absolute Continuity of Quantile Functions

Given a real random variable $X$, suppose $T:\mathbb{R}\to\mathbb{R}$ is non-decreasing. Define $Y=T\left(X\right)$. Let $Q_{X}$, $Q_{Y}$ be the corresponding right-continuous quantile functions. ...
8
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166 views

Random variables that span copies of $\ell_p$

Consider the coin-toss measure $\mu$ on $\{0,1\}^\mathbb{N}$. Within this framework it is easy to construct a sequence of independent, symmetric Bernoulli random variables. Indeed the point-evaluation ...
8
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0answers
158 views

Why row vectors in stochastic processes?

It seems reasonable to state that column vectors $\mathbf{x}$ are the most frequently seen standard notation, often using $\mathbf{x}^\intercal$ to denote a row vector (transposed column vector). ...
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0answers
692 views

The Expectation of a function of independent random variables

Assume we have for some index $i>n$ ($n \in \mathbb{N} $) the following ${\it Independent \ Random \ Variables}$ $$h_i \sim \text {i.i.d }\ \ \mathcal{CN}(0,1) \ \ \text{ Complex Gaussian}$$ $$\...
8
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0answers
157 views

Finding an upper bound for $\frac{d}{d\theta}\beta^*(\theta)|_{\theta=\theta_0}$

Suppose that a random variable X has a distribution depending on a parameter $\theta$, $\theta \in \Theta$, and consider a test of hypothesis $H_0: \theta = \theta_0$ versus the alternative $H_1: \...
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0answers
534 views

Proving existence of limit by Martingale.

I'm thinking about a question: Suppose $y_n > −1$ for all $n$ and $\sum |y_n| < \infty$. Show that $\prod_{m=1}^\infty (1 + y_m)$ exists. Since $\sum |y_n| < \infty$, we must be able to ...
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0answers
442 views

Calculating probability of some event using geometric considerations

I want to estimate exponentially the following probability: Let $\bf{U}\in\mathbb{R}^n$ be a random vector uniformly distributed on the $n$-dimensional hypersphere, centered at the origin with radius ...
8
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0answers
354 views

Expected Number of Convex Layers and the expected size of a layer for different distributions

It is well-known that the expected number of vertices on the convex hull of random set of points in the plane distributed uniformly within a $k$-gon is $O(k\log n)$ and within a smooth shape (e.g. a ...
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123 views
+300

If $X\sim \mathrm{lognormal}$ then $Y:=(X-d|x\geq d)$ has approximately a Generalized Pareto distribution.

Let $X$ be a random variable with lognormal distribution. Show that when sufficiently large then $Y:=(X-d|x\geq d)$ is approximately a random variable with generalized Pareto distribution. Hint: Use ...
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0answers
83 views

Optimal rate of growth of i.i.d. Gaussians?

Suppose I have a countable collection $\{N_k\}_{k=1}^\infty$ of independent $\mathcal{N}(0.1)$ random variables and I want to estimate their rate of growth in the sense that I want to find a function $...
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0answers
274 views

Clarification on a proof of Roth's theorem

Roth's theorem is stated in the book by Einsiedler and Ward, theorem 7.14 page 191 as: Let $(X,\mathscr{B},\mu,T)$ be a measure-preserving probability system. Then, for any functions $f_1,f_2 \in L^{\...
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0answers
128 views

How the Brownian motion escapes the minimum? A question based on the Lecture notes from Zeitouni on RWRE

In the "Lectures on Probability Theory and Statistics Ecole d’Eté de Probabilités de Saint-Flour XXXI - 2001" in page 249 one reads $$A_n^{J,\delta}=\left\{\begin{array}{ll}\omega\in\Omega:\!\!\! &...
7
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0answers
287 views

Practical applications of non-standard probability

Recently I read a paper by Benci et al. describing an alternative to Kolmogorov's construction of probability where the probability measure $P$ takes values in a non-Archimedian field and we have $P(A)...
7
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0answers
135 views

Getting a bound for Gibbs distribution mean

Suppose $F$ is a strictly convex and increasing function, $U$ a random variable with support $[0,1]$ and density $$ f_U(u)= \frac{e^{-\frac{1}{T}F(u)}}{\int_{0}^{1} e^{-\frac{1}{T} F(x)} dx}.$$ Do we ...
7
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0answers
147 views

Recast the scalar SPDE $du_t(Φ_t(x))=f_t(Φ_t(x))dt+∇ u_t(Φ_t(x))⋅ξ_t(Φ_t(x))dW_t$ into a SDE in an infinite dimensional function space.

Let$^1$ $(\Omega,\mathcal A,\operatorname P)$ be a probability space $U$ be a separable Hilbert space $Q\in\mathfrak L(U)$ be nonnegative and symmetric operator on $U$ with finite trace $(W_t)_{t\ge0}...
7
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0answers
232 views

Holomorphic extensions of characteristic functions

Let $\chi(\xi) := \mathbb{E}e^{i \xi X}$, $\xi \in \mathbb{R}^d$, be the characteristic function of a random variable $X$. It is widely known that $\chi$ admits a holomorphic extension to the strip $\{...
7
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0answers
543 views

Show that $\frac1n\log X_n$ converges almost surely

Let $X_0$ follow $\mathrm{Uniform}(0,1)$. Define $X_{n+1}$ iteratively as $X_{n+1}$ follows $\mathrm{Uniform}(0,X_n)$, $n\geq0$. Show that $\dfrac{\log X_n}{n}$ converges almost surely and find the ...
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0answers
587 views

Bound variance proxy of a subGaussian random variable by its variance

If I know $X$ is a sub-Gaussian random variable, and I know it has finite variance $\sigma^2$. Can I assert that $\sigma^2$ is a valid variance proxy for $X$? Definition (sub-Gaussian Random Variable)...
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0answers
468 views

Relationship of SDE and Feynman-Kac PDE

I am struggling with this problem: Given a stochastic differential equation $$ dX_t = b(X_t) dt + \sigma (X_t) \,dW_t $$ where $W$ is a Brownian motion and the functions $b$ and $\sigma$ are ...
7
votes
0answers
211 views

Are two random variables with the same distribution related by an isomorphism of an extended probability space?

Let $(\Omega, {\cal B}, P)$ be a probability space and let $X$ and $Y$ be two random elements $\Omega \to T$ where $T$ is some measurable space. Assume that the distributions of $X$ and $Y$ are equal. ...
7
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0answers
483 views

proving equalities in stochastic calculus

I am struggling with this question: FIRST PART (almost done, but stuck somewhere): Let $Z $~$ N(0,1)$ be a standard normal random variable, and define a function $F$ by the formula \begin{equation} ...
7
votes
0answers
243 views

Linear w.r.t. any measure

Let $X$ be a Banach space endowed with a Borel $\sigma$-algebra. How do we call a real-valued Borel function $f$ that satisfies for any Borel probability measure $\mu$ the following formula $$ \...
7
votes
0answers
218 views

Representation of Stochastic Integrals as Lebesgue/Bochner Integrals

Just as the Riemann–Stieltjes integral can be equivalently defined as a Lebesgue integral with the corresponding Lebesgue–Stieltjes measure, I am looking for the corresponding results for the ...
7
votes
0answers
388 views

Is Hoeffding's bound tight in any way?

The inequality: $$\Pr(\overline X - \mathrm{E}[\overline X] \geq t) \leq \exp \left( - \frac{2n^2t^2}{\sum_{i=1}^n (b_i - a_i)^2} \right) $$ Is this bound (or any other form of hoeffding) tight in ...