A person decides to flip a coin until it lands on heads.
What is the probability that the first time it lands on heads is on the 4th flip (that is, it lands on 3 tails before it lands on heads for the first time).
I understand this question. Using the geometric distribution, I solve for P(x=$4$):
P(Heads) = $0.5$
P(Tails) = $0.5$
P(X=$4$) = $0.5^3$ x $0.5^1$ = $0.5^4$ = $0.0625$
If their first $3$ flips are tails, what is the probability that the next flip will be heads?
I'm not sure how where to start? To me, this sounds exactly like Part 1. Any help is appreciated.