Let's say there are 10 teams: A-J. Each team always participate in each of the game. Only 1 team wins, others lose. Probability of any team to win is unknown (different for each team) and to be calculated.
There were 3 games: Game1, Game2, Game3.
Team A lost Game1 and Game2 and won Game3. What is the probability of the team A to win Game4?
Now, more complex second question: let's say probability to win is unknown, but known to change over time. How would this affect the answer?