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Recall that the Borel distribution is defined by the pmf:

$$f_X(n) = \frac{(\mu n)^{n-1}}{n!} e^{-\mu n}$$

I have been informed that the expected value for such a distribution is

$$\frac{1}{1-\mu}$$

I have seen arguments that prove that fact using the Galton-Watson branching process, but it lacked detail, and I am pretty ignorant about the conventions. So I am a bit over my head. Can the expectation be evaluated from first principles? I tried and did not get far:

$$ E(X) = e^{1-\mu} \left(\sum_{n=0}^\infty \frac{(\mu e)^n}{n!} (n+1)^n\right) $$

(by cancelling $n$, reindexing, factoring,).

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  • $\begingroup$ Typo - shouldn't it be $f_X(n)$? $\endgroup$ May 29, 2014 at 1:38
  • $\begingroup$ Oops, yes, thank you $\endgroup$
    – nomen
    May 29, 2014 at 3:38

1 Answer 1

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Let $\nu = \mu e^{-\mu}$. Without loss of generality $0 < \mu < 1$. The fact that $f_X$ is a pmf means that $$ \sum_{n=1}^\infty \frac{n^{n-1}}{n!} \nu^n = \mu .$$ (It also follows by the power series for the Lambert $W$ function, but we won't use that fact.)

Differentiate both sides with respect to $\nu$, to get $$ \sum_{n=1}^\infty \frac{n^{n}}{n!} \nu^{n-1} = \frac{d\mu}{d\nu} ,$$ or $$ E(X) = \sum_{n=1}^\infty n \frac{(\mu n)^{n-1}}{n!} e^{-n\mu} = e^{-\mu} \frac{d\mu}{d\nu} \\ = e^{-\mu} \left(\frac{d\nu}{d\mu}\right)^{-1} = e^{-\mu} \frac1{e^{-\mu} - \mu e^{-\mu}} = \frac1{1-\mu} .$$ P.S. Differentiating both sides with respect to $\nu$ should get you the variance of $X$.

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  • $\begingroup$ Could you please give a bit more detail about the variance calculation? I struggle to find the value of an infinite sum there. Possibly it's because I didn't quite understand how you got the value of the first order derivative. $\endgroup$
    – Lola
    Dec 4, 2016 at 17:13
  • $\begingroup$ If you differentiate again, you get $\sum n^n(n-1)\nu^{n-2}/n!$, which is $(E(X^2) - E(X))\nu^{-2}$. $\endgroup$ Dec 4, 2016 at 18:40
  • $\begingroup$ Thank you! But could you please expand on how you actually get to Var(X)? I'm struggling to get to the end from your given formula. . $\endgroup$
    – Lola
    Dec 5, 2016 at 11:31
  • $\begingroup$ You already know $E(X)$. What you want to compute is $E(X^2)-E(X)^2$. $\endgroup$ Dec 5, 2016 at 12:51

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