# What are the odds of not being selected 2 years in a row when you have a 71% chance of winning each year?

What are the odds of not being selected 2 years in a row when you have a 71% chance of winning each year. We have an annual lottery for a golf tournament. 130 registrants, 92 are picked each year.

• The probability would be $\left( \frac{38}{130} \right)^2$. Commented Apr 6, 2014 at 1:28
• Thanks! Does that equate to about an 8.5% chance of that happening? Would I cube it if I was looking for the chance of not being selected 3 years in row, as in about 2.5%? Much appreciated. Commented Apr 6, 2014 at 1:35
• Yes, it equates to about an $8.5$% chance of that happening. You would indeed cube it if you were looking for the chance of not being selected $3$ years in a row and that would give about a $2.5$% chance. Commented Apr 6, 2014 at 1:37

• It's still pretty bad luck, you would expect (on average) only about $11$ people to have such bad luck. Commented Apr 6, 2014 at 1:50
• Wouldn't the "odds" be $\frac{.29^2}{1 - .29^2}$ and not $.29^2$?