Suppose that you are diagnosed with microscopic hematuria (blood in the urine that is only visible under a microscope). This symptom occurs in 10 percent of all people and 100 percent of people with kidney cancer. You would like to know the probability that you have kidney cancer, which occurs in 0.0002 percent of all people.
Now, when I solve it with Bayes' Theorem, the answer is as follows;
[1.0][0.000002]/[0.1] = .00002
But the thing is, what if the chance of the symptom occuring increased to 20%? Then the answer would be .00001, but shouldn't the answer also increase? What am I missing?