A = HUMAN 1 B = HUMAN 2
A is related to B, specifically A is the father of B
A goes on holiday 5 years ago, staying in a hotel in popular tourist spot near Scotland (long way from home)
During holiday and stay at hotel, B is filmed, alone, in a cut of the exterior/gardens of the hotel
(in this instance, it is to be assumed that prior to arrival at the hotel, no knowledge of a television filming)
A deceases unexpectedly (specifically early March 2010)
B is distraught A's unexpected death and is feeling pretty down and distraught as it is currently the anniversary of his death a few days previous (early March 2014)
B switches on the television, sets record/series link on a series specifically named 'The Hotel Inspector' as having B has a general interest in programs relating to regeneration, ie. turning bad into good (whether it's houses/businesses), in this scenario, "improving worst-run hotels and bed-and-breakfast establishments"
several days later, B switches on TV and decides to delete 6 out of the 10 episodes recorded as B has no interest based on synopsis of said episodes
B decides to watch the last episode which was recorded, the location is appealing to tourists
20~ minutes into watching the episode, B sees A walking through the gardens of the hotel, (like an outtake to show off the gardens of the hotel) (in the background walking), the only person in the scene was A, no interview/input from A to camera (ie. talking), just walking (destination being visually off filming/screen) A was not seen on screen again for the rest of the episode
What is the odds/probability that B having being related to A (daughter -> father) AND four years exactly to the same week A deceases, B watches TV as any other day, (although slightly upset/down in the dumps as A's aniversary of death is in less than a week away), B sees A on an episode, A being on screen for 10-20 seconds of the 1 hour program
B had NO knowledge to A being ever filmed during any holidays within A's lifetime. After some thought, B can remember A going on holiday to the small town, but A didn't reveal that he was filmed during his holiday nor is it known he was ever on television.
How likely is seeing A, since, deceased family member on a TV program, having not knowing a family member being on TV without any possible knowledge or reason to believe that they would see family member on such a unique program, and all this happening pretty much exactly 4 years to his death.
Sorry if I have over complicated/over explained this. I have tried to give you as much information as possible as i would love to have the best true answer in regards to the odds of those events taking place.
A is basically my grandad, B is my mum - she cannot believe what she saw, being spiritual, it has helped her get through the death of her father. Having seen the program, I find it unbelievable (although amazingly true) without any doubt... Although I don't believe in messages from beyond the grave. It feels like a miracle for such a rare thing to happen. I do fully understand anything can happen if the right events take place at the right times, but in this scenario, what is the probability?
Both myself and my mother really appreciate the time taken to read this and any time you can spare to help us work out how this could happen and how rare this is...
sorry if the title is misleading, I am struggling to come up with a model.
If this is the wrong place to ask this question, please could you point me in the right direction to getting the answer as it's on my mind and feel by knowing the odds/probability of the events consecutively will help me let go and accept it/understand.
If this can be worked out, could you explain the logic on how it was worked out (in an explanatory form as I am not familiar with calculus (but hoping to learn in the near future)!
I just cant stop thinking about this, thanks again