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I have some difficulties with the following exercise in combinations:

There are $8$ beans in the box: $6$ white beans, $2$ green beans. Two players one by one pick $2$ beans; first player one picks $2$ beans, after that player two picks $2$ beans. For every green bean that player picks he gets $5$ points.

What's the expected number of points for player one? What's the probability that player two picks only one green bean?

Solution:

$$E(\text{points of player one}) = 4 \cdot 5 \cdot \frac{2}{8} \cdot \frac{6}{7} + 10 \cdot 2 \cdot \frac{2}{8} \cdot \frac{1}{7}$$

Unfortunately I didn't find any good way to fir the binomial distribution here.

I don't get any idea how to answer the second question.

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  • $\begingroup$ Does a player get $5$ points when he picks all green beans? Or does he get $5$ points for each green brean? $\endgroup$
    – TMM
    Jan 26, 2014 at 15:27
  • $\begingroup$ @TMM, thank you for the comment, I've changed the question, for every green bean player gets 5 points. $\endgroup$
    – user16168
    Jan 26, 2014 at 15:37

1 Answer 1

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For question 1 you have to take the sum of the value of each outcome multiplied by the probability of the outcome. This is how I would do it:

2 beans: $\underbrace{\frac{1}{8\cdot7}}_\text{probability}\cdot\underbrace{10}_{\text{value of outcome}}$

1 bean: $\frac{7}{8\cdot7}\cdot5$

0 beans: value is 0 so probabilty won't matter.

Add them all up to get $\frac{15}{14}\approx 1.071$

For the second question break in to cases:

case 1: player 1 took 1 green bean. Probability:$\frac{2\cdot6\cdot5}{8\cdot7\cdot6}$

assuming this happens the probability player 2 gets the remaining green is $\frac{6\cdot5}{6\cdot5\cdot4}$ So the probability of both happening is $\frac{2\cdot6\cdot5}{8\cdot7\cdot6}\cdot\frac{6\cdot5}{6\cdot5\cdot4}=\frac{5}{112}\approx 0.044$

case 2: player 1 took no green balls: probability $\frac{6\cdot5\cdot4}{8\cdot7\cdot6}$

assuming this happens the probability player 2 takes exactly 1 green ball is $\frac{2\cdot6\cdot5}{6\cdot5\cdot4}$. So the probability both happen is $\frac{6\cdot5\cdot4}{8\cdot7\cdot6}\cdot\frac{2\cdot6\cdot5}{6\cdot5\cdot4}=\frac{5}{28}\approx.178$

So the total probvability is the sum of the probabilities of the two cases which is $\frac{5}{28}+\frac{5}{112}\approx 0.2232$

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  • $\begingroup$ Thank you very much for the answer, could you please elaborate where $\frac{6}{8*7*6}$ comes from, in addition in the probability on the 1 bean you assume that the bean was drawn on the second draw should I consider the case when the bean was draw on the first draw? $\endgroup$
    – user16168
    Jan 27, 2014 at 5:19
  • $\begingroup$ This is all wrong, I had been doing it for the case where they pick 3 by 3 for some reason, I'lll fix it when I get home, sorry for mistake. $\endgroup$
    – Asinomás
    Jan 27, 2014 at 20:08
  • $\begingroup$ Thank you very much, can you please explain what is $\frac{1}{8*7}$? $\endgroup$
    – user16168
    Jan 28, 2014 at 8:17

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