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So there is some game out there which offers a 50% chance of success on doing a certain action (that involves real money, irrelevant whether you pay it or trade ingame items to someone else who bought it with real money).

Now the clue is that is very common for their to be 6x Fail in a row, but it is also quite common to have 6x Success in a row. The odds of such things happening would be 1.5625% (50%^6), but it seems to happen way more often, of course there is no real way to prove such a thing.

But could someone verify the thought that I have came up with:

  • Multiple people may be sharing the same RNG instance at the same time, so assume it would generate a perfect sequence of F/S/F/S/F/S/F/S/F/S/F/S (F = Fail, S = Succeed)

  • Would it then be possible that, when two people are sharing the RNG instance, one persons gets the 6x Fail and the other person gets the 6x Success?

Or does my whole little theory make no sense at all?

What might be any other reason that 6x Fail, but also 6x Success, are occuring so often? While human might would perceive 50% chance as one success out of two tries, so having 2 fails is more unlikely, 3 fails is almost impossible already in perception.

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  • $\begingroup$ Just a question: How did you get $7.776\%$? And what does that number mean exactly? $\endgroup$ – TMM Jan 4 '14 at 19:21
  • $\begingroup$ @TMM Sorry that was a typo, it was meant to be 1.5625%, being 50% to the power of 6 $\endgroup$ – skiwi Jan 4 '14 at 19:25
  • $\begingroup$ I'm wondering if there's some concurrency issues that might make this happen. Given a sequence of $12$ letters, each of which is either 'F' or 'S', the probability that there will be exactly $6$ of each is $\displaystyle \frac{\binom{12}{6}}{2^{12}} \approx 22.5\%$ $\endgroup$ – 2012ssohn Jan 4 '14 at 19:27

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