There's an 80% probability of a certain outcome, we get some new information that means that outcome is 4 times more likely to occur.
What's the new probability as a percentage and how do you work it out?
As I remember it the question was posed like so:
Suppose there's a student, Tom W, if you were asked to estimate the probability that Tom is a student of computer science. Without any other information you would only have the base rate to go by (percentage of total students enrolled on computer science) suppose this base rate is 80%.
Then you are given a description of Tom W's personality, suppose from this description you estimate that Tom W is 4 times more likely to be enrolled on computer science.
What is the new probability that Tom W is enrolled on computer science.
The answer given in the book is 94.1% but I couldn't work out how to calculate it!
Another example in the book is with a base rate of 3%, 4 times more likely than this is stated as 11%.