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I am trying to understand the meaning of $\lambda$ in Poisson distributions. I know that it is the average rate of occurrences of the event, but I have not been able to fully understand what that means.

In "A First Course in Probability" by Sheldon Ross, the author says that a Poisson distribution may be used as an approximation for a binomial distribution with parameters $(n,p)$ when $n$ is large and $p$ is small enough so that $np$ is of moderate size.

  1. What does $np$ being of moderate size mean? What is considered as of moderate size?
  2. Why does $np$ have to be of moderate size? Why can a Poisson distribution not be used as an approximation for a binomial distribution if $np$ is too big or too small?

Also, in other books, I read that a Poisson distribution is the limiting case of a binomial distribution when $\lambda=np$ is constant as $n\to\infty$.

Under what conditions, is $\lambda$ constant as $n\to\infty$?

I am new to probability. If someone can provide the intuition behind Poisson distributions (specifically about $\lambda$), I would greatly appreciate it.

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    $\begingroup$ Personally, I have better understood what a Poisson distribution is when I saw Poisson processes as solutions to a differential equation as described in this answer. You need analysis techniques for understanding limit behaviors... $\endgroup$
    – Jean Marie
    Commented Apr 29, 2022 at 4:26
  • $\begingroup$ Besides, you don't mention the exceedingly important connection of this discrete distribution with the "continuous" exponential distribution with parameter ... $\lambda$. See here $\endgroup$
    – Jean Marie
    Commented Apr 29, 2022 at 4:32
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    $\begingroup$ Does this answer your question? What is the intuition behind the Poisson distribution's function? $\endgroup$
    – Kurt G.
    Commented Apr 29, 2022 at 6:07
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    $\begingroup$ @MikeEarnest Did you mean to write "does not answer"? (You posted a great answer, which I'd hate to see deleted when/if this question is closed.) $\endgroup$
    – r.e.s.
    Commented May 4, 2022 at 23:50
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    $\begingroup$ @KurtG. Your proposed duplicate does not answer the question here. OP is asking specifically, "Why does np have to be of moderate size?". [Thanks for comment, r.e.s.!] $\endgroup$ Commented May 5, 2022 at 18:20

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This is a fantastic question, as it gets at the heart of a common misconception. The answer to the question "Why does $np$ have to be of moderate size?" is that it does not! The only thing that is needed for Poisson approximation is that $p$ is small.

To make this precise, we need a way to measure the quality of a probabilistic approximation. If $X$ and $Y$ are random variables, we define the total variation distance between them to be $$ d_{\text{TV}}(X, Y)=\sup_{A} |P(X\in A)-P(Y\in A)| $$ If this distance is small, say it is at most $\epsilon$, then you can use the distribution of $Y$ to calculation the probability of an event involving $X$, and have an absolute error of at most $\epsilon$.

Theorem Let $X\sim \text{Binomial}(n,p)$, let $\lambda=np$, and let $Y\sim \text{Poisson}(\lambda)$. Then $$ d_\text{TV}(X,Y)\le \min\{p,np^2\}\tag1 $$

Therefore, as long as $p$ is small, the quality of the Poisson approximation is good.

This same idea is true in greater generality. For a Binomial distribution, there are $n$ independent and equiprobable events; we can drop the requirement of equiprobability. Let $E_1,\dots,E_n$ be independent events, with $P(E_i)=p_i$ for $i\in \{1,\dots,n\}$. If we let $X$ be the number of events which occur, and let $Z$ be a Poisson random variable with the same mean as $X$, meaning that $Z\sim \text{Poisson}(\lambda)$ with $\lambda=\sum_{i=1}^n p_i$, then

$$ d_\text{TV}(X, Z)\le \min\left\{\frac1{\lambda}\sum_{i=1}^n p_i^2, \,\,\sum_{i=1}^n p_i^2\right\}\tag2 $$ In the case where $p_1=\dots=p_n=p$, we recover $(1)$. For a proof of $(2)$, see Approximate Computations of Expectations, by Charles Stein. Equation $(2)$ appears on page 89.


Some comments on the semantic parts of your questions.

  • "Moderate" is not a precise term; it just means "neither larger nor small," but large and small are subjective.

  • When people say that $\lambda=np$ is constant as $n\to\infty$, it just means that $n$ is getting larger, and for each particular instance of $n$, the corresponding value of $p$ is equal to $\lambda/n$. Saying

The Binomial$(n,p)$ distribution as $n\to\infty$ with $\lambda=np$ constant.

means the exact same thing as

The Binomial$(n,\tfrac{\lambda}n)$ distribution as $n\to\infty$.

So, Binomial$(10,0.5)$ is pretty close to a Poisson$(5)$ distribution, Binomial$(50,0.1)$ is even closer, Binomial$(500,0.01)$ is extremely close, etc.

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  • $\begingroup$ Thank you so much for your great answer. Can you also explain what it means to assume $\lambda$ is a constant as $n\to\infty$? In such cases where $n\to\infty$ implies $p\to0$, is $\lambda=np$ always a constant as $n\to\infty$? $\endgroup$
    – Koda
    Commented May 6, 2022 at 2:53
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    $\begingroup$ @kmiyazaki See edit. $\endgroup$ Commented May 6, 2022 at 14:41
  • $\begingroup$ Thank you so much! $\endgroup$
    – Koda
    Commented May 6, 2022 at 19:51

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