A thought experiment:
Hypothetically lets assume a machine can predict result of equally likely events correctly with probability 0.8(say a coin toss for example).
We know probability of getting a head/tail in a coin toss is 0.5, The machine beforehand predicts that head is the result of the next toss. Does this change the probability of getting a head/tail in the next toss? (because we know the machine predicts 8/10 times correctly and also assume the machine is intelligent and once event has occurred the machine predicts the result with 100% accuracy)
Does the first statement make sense? Is it even possible to call the events equally likely if the machine can predict the outcome with some accuracy?
Bonus discussion: Two cases I imagined: (Not sure if it is relevant to this forum)
- Either the machine can go into the future with some accuracy and return to the same timeline
- Or the machine knows every occurrence of tosses with some precision
Note: The machine cannot predict with 100% accuracy - This makes seeing the future with absolute precision not possible. (If not I think probability cannot exist right? we already know the future)
For me case 2 makes the event not equally likely because the machine always knows the future with some accuracy. Case 1 - Not really sure because the event has to happen normally, its just that the machine knows the result by traveling to the future but this might have to do with closed time loop and paradoxes
Edited first statement from: Hypothetically lets assume a machine can predict result of equally likely events correctly 8/10 times(say a coin toss for example).