Our team is playing another team that wins 70% of its games. Our team is pretty good but wins only 60% of its games. If these teams have never played before and they've played equally hard opponents, what is the chance our team will be victorius? I think I solved it by comparing the game to flipping coins, but was looking for an answer a little more mathematical or rigorous.
My approach is based on flipping coins. The other team's "coin" comes up heads 70% of the time (and 30% tails) and our team's "coin" comes up heads 60% of the time (and 40% tails). If I flip the coins many times and disregard the outcomes when both coins are heads or both coins are tails, I would expect 18% of the flips our team's coin would have a head and their team's coin would be a tail (0.6*0.3); and 28% of the flips the other team would get a head and our team a tail (0.7*0.4). Thus, our team would be expected to win 39% of the games (0.18/(0.18+0.28) and the other team 71%.
I thought I'd ask if this makes sense and for a more mathematical approach. Thank you