I was hoping that by interpreting the left-hand side as an enumeration problem, there would be a relatively simple combinatorial proof. So far this hasn't panned out. I had thought it possible to obtain a strong partial result, but this turned out to be mistaken. (See below.) Perhaps someone can figure out how to turn these ideas into something that acually works.
The left-hand side of the OP's inequality can be interpreted as the enumeration of what I have called "balanced sequences". If anyone knows the proper name for these, please let me know. Let $\Sigma$ equal $\{1,2,\ldots,n\}^n,$ that is, the set of sequences of length $n$ of numbers from the set $\{1,2,\ldots,n\}.$ For $r\in\mathbf{Z}$ we say that $\sigma\in\Sigma$ is $r$-balanced if the number of elements greater than $r$ in $\sigma$ equals $r.$ You can see that there are no $0$-balanced or $n$-balanced sequences. Some examples: if $n=4,$ then the sequences $2111,$ $1211,$ $1114$ are $1$-balanced; the sequences $2234,$ $4321,$ $4411$ are $2$-balanced; the sequences $1444$ and $4443$ are $3$-balanced. Define a sequence to be balanced if it is $r$-balanced for some $r,$ and unbalanced otherwise.
In general, the number of $r$-balanced sequences is
$$\binom{n}{r}r^{n-r}(n-r)^r$$
since there are $\binom{n}{r}$ ways to choose the positions for the low elements in the sequence, $r^{n-r}$ ways of assigning low elements to those positions, and $(n-r)^r$ ways of assigning high elements to the remaining positions. (Here "low" means less than or equal to $r;$ "high" means greater than $r.)$
Observe that if $\sigma$ is both $r$-balanced and $s$-balanced, then $r=s$. For if $s<r,$ then $\sigma$ has $r$ elements greater than $r,$ which means that it has at least $r$ elements greater than $s.$ This contradicts that $\sigma$ has exactly $s$ elements greater than $s.$ Since a balanced sequence is therefore $r$-balanced for exactly one $r,$ the number of balanced sequences is
$$\sum_{r=0}^n\binom{n}{r}r^{n-r}(n-r)^r,$$
which must therefore be less than or equal to $\lvert\Sigma\rvert=n^n.$
To obtain the factor $1/2$ on the right, it would suffice to find an injective map from the set of balanced sequences to the set of unbalanced sequences. Unfortunately, I have been unable to devise such a map. robjohn's result shows that this may be delicate: as $n$ approaches infinity, $\Sigma$ will be roughly evenly split between balanced and unbalanced sequences.
Some incorrect material here: I had thought there was a simple argument leading to the inequality
$$\sum_{r=0}^n\binom{n}{r}r^{n-r}(n-r)^r\le n^n-(n-1)^n=[1-(1-1/n)^n]n^n.$$
For large $n,$ the right-hand side is approximately $(1-1/e)n^n\approx 0.632n^n.$ Unfortunately, the argument was flawed. I quote it here for future reference.
One gets a partial result as follows. Let $\Sigma_-=\{1,2,\ldots,n-1\}^n.$ Define the right translates of $\sigma\in\Sigma_-$ to be the sequences in $\Sigma$ of the form $\sigma+c,$ where $c\ge1$ and $\sigma+c$ is the sequence obtained from $\sigma$ by adding $c$ to every one of its elements. Clearly we must have $c\le c_\max=n-\max(\sigma).$
It is not hard to see that right translates of a balanced sequence are unbalanced. It then follows that $\Sigma$ contains at least $(n-1)^n$ unbalanced sequences. For every sequence $\sigma\in\Sigma_-$ is either unbalanced, or has a right translate $\sigma+c_\max$ in $\Sigma\setminus\Sigma_-$ that is unbalanced. (The map that takes a balanced sequence in $\Sigma_-$ to its maximal right translate in $\Sigma\setminus\Sigma_-$ is invertible - merely translate leftward until the sequence becomes balanced.) This proves that there are at most $n^n-(n-1)^n$ balanced sequences.
The flaw is that right translates of balanced sequences are not necessarily unbalanced. A simple example is $1133$ and its right translate $2244,$ both of which are $2$-balanced. I guess I was misled by the examination of many $r$-balanced sequences $\sigma\in\Sigma_-$ with the property that $r$ was an element of $\sigma.$ In this case, one can prove that $\sigma+1$ is unbalanced as follows. Let $\rho_j(\sigma)$ be the number of elements of $\sigma$ that are greater than $j.$ If the table of values $\rho_l(\sigma)$ looks like
$$\begin{array}{c|cccccccccc} j & 0 & 1 & 2 & \ldots & r-1 & r & r+1 & \ldots & n-1 & n\\ \hline\rho_j(\sigma) & n & a_1 & a_2 & \ldots & a_{r-1} & r & a_{r+1} & \ldots & 0 & 0 \end{array},$$
then the corresponding table for $\rho_j(\sigma+1)$ looks like
$$\begin{array}{c|ccccccccccc} j & 0 & 1 & 2 & \ldots & r-1 & r & r+1 & \ldots & n-1 & n\\ \hline\rho_j(\sigma+1) & n & n & a_1 & \ldots & a_{r-2} & a_{r-1} & r & \ldots & a_{n-2} & 0 \end{array}.$$
The sequence $a_1,a_2,\ldots,a_{n-2}$ is nonincreasing, and, since $r$ is an element of $\sigma,$ we have $a_{r-1}>r$. Therefore $\sigma+1$ is unbalanced. This argument does not work if $r$ is not an element of $\sigma$ since then $a_{r-1}=r.$ It also fails for $\sigma+c$ with $c>1.$