# Probability of hitting a four in cricket

Based on historical data, I calculated the probability of hitting a four (a type of shot) in cricket in one ball to be 0.114 (11.4%) [total number of fours / total number of balls]. In this case, how would I calculate the probability of a certain player hitting F fours in B balls?

I tried simply multiplying the probability per ball by the number of balls, but this at times gives results far greater than 1 (when the number of fours is more than expected). Thanks for the help.

Assuming the results of each ball is independent, what you want is described by the binomial distribution. If $$p$$ is the probability of a four on a given ball (note $$p=0.114$$ for you), then the probability of getting exactly $$F$$ fours in $$B$$ balls is $$\binom{B}{F}p^F (1-p)^{B-F}.$$
Here, $$\binom{B}{F}$$ is a binomial coefficient, equal to $$\frac{B(B-1)(B-2)\ldots (B-F+1)}{F!}$$.