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Someone didn't text me for 2 months and then I received a text message within 15 minutes of being with someone else. I want to find out what the probability is of receiving that text message randomly and also if it wasn't a coincidence.

This is what I've come up with so far:

57600 minutes elapsed between texts (16 hour day over 60 days)

any 15 minute time block is 15/57600 = 0.00026

2.6 out of 10000

1.3 out of 5000

This is my math for the weighted probability, which is probably wrong:

individual probability of each event: 0.00026

they are dependent events

P for first event = 0.00026042

P for second event = 15/57575 = 0.00026053

P for both events = 0.00026042 * 0.00026053 = 0.00000007

7 in 10,000,000

1 in 1.428 million

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  • $\begingroup$ Yes, 16 hours per day when it is feasible for them to be awake and to send me a text message. $\endgroup$ – user3253260 May 12 at 20:10
  • $\begingroup$ Look up the poisson distribution $\endgroup$ – Shogun May 12 at 20:29
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    $\begingroup$ You are clearly commiting the inverse probability fallacy an the Prosecutor’s fallacy with the question that you are asking. $\endgroup$ – JustAnotherStackUser May 12 at 23:35
  • $\begingroup$ What the hell is everyone talking about? Can anyone answer my question? $\endgroup$ – user3253260 May 14 at 2:34

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