You roll three six-sided dice.
Exactly two of those three dice roll to even numbers.
What are the chances that exactly two of the dice rolled to the same number?
I have an answer, but I can't get it to agree with Bayes Theorem so I would especially appreciate help seeing how to use Bayes here.
Update: After receiving some unfriendly help below, I just want to clarify that my question was only about how one might use Bayes to think about this problem. While I understand that this is strictly unnecessary for solving the problem, I thought it might be interesting, and then I got intrigued when I had trouble using Bayes to agree with the simpler argument. That's the context for this question.