# Deriving max. likelihood estimate of β for a logistic model of two classes with a single binary regressor

I have the log-likelihood function: $$l(\overrightarrow\beta)=\sum_{i=1}^n [y_i log(p(\overrightarrow x_i;\overrightarrow\beta))+(1-y_i)log(1-p(\overrightarrow x_i;\overrightarrow\beta)]$$

where $$p(\overrightarrow x_i;\overrightarrow\beta)=\frac{e^{{\overrightarrow\beta^T}\overrightarrow x_i}}{{1+\overrightarrow\beta^T}\overrightarrow x_i}$$ where $$\overrightarrow\beta=(0,\beta_1)^T$$ is the parameter vector and $$\overrightarrow x$$ is the matrix of inputs, whose first column is all 1's.

The two classes are $$y_i=0$$ or $$1$$, and since there is a single binary regressor, $$\overrightarrow x_i$$ will be an $$n\times2$$ matrix where $$x=0$$ or $$1$$.

Additionally, $$n_{1,0}$$ denotes the number of observations with $$x_i=1$$ and $$y_i=0$$, and $$n_{1,1}$$ denotes the number of observations with $$x_i=1$$ and $$y_i=1$$.

The max. likelihood estimator of $$\beta_1$$ is claimed to be $$log\frac{n_{1,1}}{n_{1,0}}$$, but I can't see why that's the case. I know how to find the first derivative of the log-likelihood function: $$\frac{\partial l(\overrightarrow \beta)}{\partial\overrightarrow \beta}=\sum_{i=1}^n [\overrightarrow x_i (y_i-p(\overrightarrow x_i;\overrightarrow\beta))]$$ *

I know for maximization we woud set this equal to zero, and can see that * breaks into two equations since $$\overrightarrow x_i= (1,1)$$ or $$(1,0)$$. For the first case we would arrive at $$\sum_{i=1}^n y_i = \sum_{i=1}^n p(\overrightarrow x_i;\overrightarrow\beta)$$, but I'm not sure what the next step might be to arrive at the given result.

Since there's only one regressor $$x$$ and there's no intercept in the model, you can treat each $$x_i$$ as a scalar instead of a vector, and regard $$\beta=\beta_1$$ as a scalar instead of a vector. So I'll drop the vector notation from now on. Set the expression $$\sum_i[x_i(y_i-p(x_i;\beta))]$$ to zero. This yields $$\sum x_iy_i = \sum x_i p(x_i;\beta)\tag1$$ The LHS of (1) simplifies to $$n_{1,1}$$ since the terms where $$x_i=0$$ or $$y_i=0$$ don't contribute.
Similarly the RHS of (1) simplifies to $$\sum_{x_i=1} p(x_i;\beta)= \#\{x_i=1\}\cdot p(1;\beta) = (n_{1,0} + n_{1,1}) e^{\beta_1}/(1+e^{\beta_1}) .$$
With these simplifications you can solve (1) for $$e^{\beta_1}=n_{1,1}/n_{1,0}$$.
Added: If your model had two parameters, say $$\vec\beta=(\beta_1,\beta_2)$$, for the intercept and the binary regressor $$x_i$$ (sorry, the meaning of $$\beta_1$$ has changed), then your equation ($$*$$) would split into two equations for the two unknowns $$\beta_1$$ and $$\beta_2$$. The $$k$$th equation would involve the column $$k$$ of the $$x$$ matrix: $$\sum x_{i,k}y_i=\sum x_{i,k} p(\vec x_i, \vec\beta).\tag2$$
The equation for column $$2$$ would be simplified as before using $$n_{1,1}$$ and $$n_{1,0}$$: $$n_{1,1} = (n_{1,0}+n_{1,1})p((1,1),\vec\beta)=(n_{1,0}+n_{1,1})\frac{e^{\beta_1+\beta_2}}{1+e^{\beta_1+\beta_2}}\tag3$$ As for the intercept column, substitute $$x_{i,1}=1$$ for all $$i$$ to get: $$\sum y_i =\sum p(\vec x_i, \vec\beta).\tag4$$ The LHS would involve only cases where $$y_i=1$$, and the RHS would break into one sum where $$x_i=0$$ and one sum where $$x_i=1$$: $$n_{0,1}+n_{1,1}=(n_{0,0}+n_{0,1})\frac{e^{\beta_1}}{1+e^{\beta_1}} +(n_{1,0}+n_{1,1})\frac{e^{\beta_1+\beta_2}}{1+e^{\beta_1+\beta_2}}\tag5$$
• @sk13 The MLE for the vector $\beta$ would involve the four possible $n$ values. See my edit. – grand_chat Oct 15 '18 at 23:26