It's been a while since I took a stats class so I'm pretty rusty on this.
I have a hobby where I've been collecting data on an online gambling game called "Crash" (you can see an explanation of the game here if you're not familiar).
I now have the crash points for a bunch of game rounds, and I've added up the counts for each round where the crash point was higher than a given number. In other words, if the crash point was 3, then 3, 2, and 1 would've been acceptable bets and they have their counter incremented. You can see what I mean in a sample of my data here.
Using my data, I'm pretty sure I can say that the odds of getting a crash of at least 1 is about 96% because I have about 150k instances out of 156k rounds where the crash was greater or equal to 1. However, I don't think I could accurately estimate the chances of getting a crash of at least 420 since 335/156k instances are probably too few. But I don't know how to calculate how many samples I need to be reasonably certain of the results.
My question is, how many instances of a crash point do I need to have before I could somewhat accurately estimate the odds of hitting that crash point or higher?