# Are all outcomes equally likely in my probability game?

Colour burst is a probability game. A spinner is first spun, and the objective of the game is popping the balloon containing confetti of the colour the spinner landed on.

You have a 2/5=¼ (0.4/40%/2:5) chance of getting each colour on the spinner and a ⅛(0.125/12.5%/1:8) chance of landing on each colour. There are 12 balloons on the board and 3 balloons contain each of the colours. You have a 3/12=¼ (0.25/25%/3:12) chance of getting a balloon that contain the correct coloured confetti and a 2/12=1/6 (0.17/17%/2:12)chance of popping the correct ballon. Each colour has an equally likely chance of getting popped.

Game rules: Step 1: Spin the colour wheel once to land on a colour

Step 2: Make a hypothesis and pop 2 balloons which you think contains that coloured confetti

Step 3: Pop these balloons and see if your hypothesis was correct

Step 4: if you pop a balloon that contains the right coloured confetti you win 10 tickets. If both your balloons had the correct colour you win 15 tickets. If both your guesses are wrong you move on to the next game. Colour you landed on the spinner Colour you popped first time Colour you popped second time

Orange Orange, Blue, Pink, Yellow Orange, Blue, Pink, Yellow

Yellow Orange, Blue, Pink, Yellow Orange, Blue, Pink, Yellow

  Pink                                                      Orange, Blue, Pink, Yellow                       Orange, Blue, Pink, Yellow


Blue Orange, Blue, Pink, Yellow Orange, Blue, Pink, Yellow

Possible outcomes O,O,O O, O, B O, O, P O, O, Y O, B ,O O, B, B O, B, P O, B, Y O,P,O O, P, B O, P, P O, P, Y O,Y,O O, Y, B O, Y, P O, Y, Y

Y, Y, Y Y, Y, O Y, Y, B Y, Y, P Y, B, Y Y, B, O Y, B, B Y, B, P
Y, P, Y Y, P, O Y, P, B Y, P, P Y, O, B Y, O, P Y, O, Y Y, O, O

P, P, P P, P, B P, P, Y P, P, O P, O, P P, O, O P, O, B P, O, Y P, B, P P, B, B P, B, Y P, B, O P, Y, P P, Y, Y P, Y, B P, Y, O

B, B, B B, B, P B, B, Y B, B, O B, O, B B, O, P B, O, Y B, O, O B, P, B B, P, Y B, P, O B, P, P B, Y, B B, Y, Y B, Y, P B, Y, O

• $\frac 25\neq \frac 14$. More to the point, the rules are unclear. I suggest starting with the basics. How many players? How many colors? Does the game end when one player hits their mark? Worth noting: no integer multiple of $\frac 25$ is $1$, so either the $\frac 25$ is wrong or the colors can not be equi-probable. – lulu Jun 18 '18 at 20:35
• i made a mistake its accutally 2/8 – sharan gill Jun 18 '18 at 20:47
• 2/5 and 2:5 don't mean the same thing. 2/5 mean that there are 2 successes for every 5 trials, while 2:5 means that there are 2 successes for every 5 failures. So 2/5 = 2:3. And how does "educated guesses" have anything to do with this? Is there any information by which a player can make anything but a random guess? – Acccumulation Jun 18 '18 at 20:48
• Ok. Mind you, that doesn't clear up the rest of the confusion. What's the difference between "getting each color" and "landing on each color"? If your random guesses (I assume they are random?) both fail, what does it cost? More broadly, please edit your post for clarity. – lulu Jun 18 '18 at 20:49
• To echo @Acccumulation, your references to "educated guesses" and "a(n) hypothesis" are very confusing. What sort of reasoning is in play here? How does it effect the probabilities? – lulu Jun 18 '18 at 20:51