# What will be the probability of getting Heads at 41th toss after first 40 toss were all tales?

So, imagine, I have fixed probsbility of 0.6 for heads and 0.4 for tales

No matter how many times I toss, probsbility will reach that value So I tossed the coin 60 times and miraculously first 60 toss were all tales. This will intact intuitive increase the probability of heads becoming more often.

How do I formulate the probability of next coin toss being head?

• It is "tails" ...and what value do you mean in "...will reach that value"? And with your info, the probability of tossing 60 consecutive tails is aprox $\;1.33\times 10^{-24}\;$ , a number so ridiculously low that it could practically be considered zero. Also, what does "...will intact intuitive increas" mean? Dec 25 '17 at 8:26
• Suppose if I toss a coin 100 times and first 2 toss were tails, and intuitively I believe probability of heads coming out in next toss is more!! What is that specific probsbility Dec 25 '17 at 22:16
• That probability is then whatever you want it to be as your belief in what the outcome can be affects decisively the probabilty of the actual outcome for you ...! Dec 25 '17 at 22:27
• Okay!! I don’t know if you watch football or not, suppose Brazil won World Cup 3 times in a row!! So probability Brazil winning fourth World Cup is low!! Meaning probability of other country winning the cup after 3 wins is higher Dec 26 '17 at 8:53
• I have found the answer myself!! Dec 26 '17 at 8:54

There is the mathematical model of a ${\bf p}=(0.6,0.4)$ coin. In this model, after you have observed $40$ tails in a row the probability for tail at the next throw is $0.4$.