So, imagine, I have fixed probsbility of 0.6 for heads and 0.4 for tales

No matter how many times I toss, probsbility will reach that value So I tossed the coin 60 times and miraculously first 60 toss were all tales. This will intact intuitive increase the probability of heads becoming more often.

How do I formulate the probability of next coin toss being head?

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    $\begingroup$ It is "tails" ...and what value do you mean in "...will reach that value"? And with your info, the probability of tossing 60 consecutive tails is aprox $\;1.33\times 10^{-24}\;$ , a number so ridiculously low that it could practically be considered zero. Also, what does "...will intact intuitive increas" mean? $\endgroup$
    – DonAntonio
    Dec 25 '17 at 8:26
  • $\begingroup$ Suppose if I toss a coin 100 times and first 2 toss were tails, and intuitively I believe probability of heads coming out in next toss is more!! What is that specific probsbility $\endgroup$ Dec 25 '17 at 22:16
  • $\begingroup$ That probability is then whatever you want it to be as your belief in what the outcome can be affects decisively the probabilty of the actual outcome for you ...! $\endgroup$
    – DonAntonio
    Dec 25 '17 at 22:27
  • $\begingroup$ Okay!! I don’t know if you watch football or not, suppose Brazil won World Cup 3 times in a row!! So probability Brazil winning fourth World Cup is low!! Meaning probability of other country winning the cup after 3 wins is higher $\endgroup$ Dec 26 '17 at 8:53
  • $\begingroup$ I have found the answer myself!! $\endgroup$ Dec 26 '17 at 8:54

There is the mathematical model of a ${\bf p}=(0.6,0.4)$ coin. In this model, after you have observed $40$ tails in a row the probability for tail at the next throw is $0.4$.

Whether your concrete coin behaves according to the model I don't know.

  • $\begingroup$ No Sir, think about it, the answer has to be TTH- TTT $\endgroup$ Dec 26 '17 at 9:19
  • $\begingroup$ I mean, if you roll a dice, in order to reach the same probability, next toss will have Higher Probability $\endgroup$ Dec 26 '17 at 9:21
  • $\begingroup$ You see, sir, if Stock prices have 50:50 chances of High or Low, after 3 consecutive, market Crash, Stock prices will rise, because, to maintain 50:50 probsbility. $\endgroup$ Dec 26 '17 at 9:23
  • $\begingroup$ It’s like, if first 3 toss had, tails, in the fourth toss, probsbility of getting head is definitely above .5 $\endgroup$ Dec 26 '17 at 9:26

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