I am stuck at this question. I am trying to use Bayes Theorem for it and the try imagining 10,000 technique but still can't seem to solve it.
A test for a disease is 95% accurate if the disease is present, and 99% accurate if it is absent. 5% of the population have the disease.
(a) In a sample of 4 people, what is the probability that one actually has the disease? (b) For the same sample, what is the probability that at least one person actually has the disease?