This year in fantasy football has been frustrating to say the least. I have the best team in the league by far when looking at overall points, yet I sit at week 10 with a record of 6-4 and barely holding on to second place. All four of my losses have been because I have gone up against a team that ends up scoring the most points in the league that week.
If there are n=10 teams in the league then (just theoretically speaking) there is a 1/10 chance the team I play will score the most points in the league that week. What are the chances that I have played the number one scoring team in the league 4 times in 10 weeks. Another way to look at it could be what are the chances I roll a 1 on a 10 sided die (do those exist? who cares) 4 times in 10 rolls.
Note: I just want to get into the theoretical probabilities since going into more nuanced probabilities of losing these games would be far more difficult. In the four games I lost I was heavily favored to win all of them, and ended up being the 2nd or 3rd highest scoring team in the league each time in those weeks (twice 2nd, twice 3rd).