Suppose I roll a 4-sided die, then flip a fair coin a number of times corresponding to the die roll. Given that i got three heads on the coin flip, what is the probability the die score was a 4?
I recognize that Bayes Formula can be used to solve this but I'm a little stuck on how to apply it. I figured that because the coin flip got three heads, it's impossible the die score is 2 or less, so the die score MUST be greater than 2. But I'm not sure if that really applies.