I will be taking a multiple choice test in two months. There will be 140 questions (5 possible answers): each right answer gives me +1 point, and each one I get wrong resuts in -0.25 points.
At this time I'm convinced that guessing questions where I can exclude at least 1 possible option is the strategy that gives me the highest absolute expected score even though I realize it has a high variance. Is this right?
Consider that to get the job I need to finish let's say in 90-95th percentile and not just beat the mean.
Is it worth using a different strategy (not answering if I'm not 100% sure, guess just the questions I'm undecided about 2,3 options?).
At this time if I have to generalize my average performance out of 140 questions:
- 80 questions: I'm 90% sure I chose the correct answer.
- 20 questions: I have to guess between 2 answers (let's say I get it right 60% of the times).
- 20 questions: I have to guess between 3 answers (let's say I get it right 35-40% of the times).
- 20 questions: I have to guess between 4 or 5 answers.
I think I need to score between 110-120 points. And of course I hope to improve my performance as I keep studying.
Thanks for any input.