# modeling Monte Carlo in Excel

this is my first post! I'm not a mathematician, so please reply in layperson's terms.

I read Douglas Hubbard's excellent book, "How To Measure Anything," in which he describes how to use Monte Carlo simulations to model the likelihood of different event outcomes in Excel.

The formula he uses is $=\text{NORMINV} (\text{RAND()}, \text{mean, (max value - min value)}/3.29)$

However, this formula assumes that outcomes occur in a standard distribution. What if my distribution is not standard?

For example, let's say I'm doing a Monte Carlo to see how much my house might sell for. The max expected value is $\$500,000$and the min value is$\$400,000$. However, the likeliest outcome is not in the middle, but slightly lower -- $\$430,000$rather than the mean of$\$450,000$, depending upon how buyers respond to repairs that are needed.

Any idea how I would model this calculation instead? Thanks!

• One dollar sign is not enough. You must put another one at the end of the expression which you want to be "dollared". Sep 25, 2017 at 14:26
• @uniquesolution The numerical values were USD values; I have edited to reflect this.
– user284001
Sep 25, 2017 at 14:31