# Equally Likely Events - Man jumps from Train

A person jumps from a very slow moving train. Let A be the event that he survives, and B be the event that he does not survive. Then which one of the following statements describes the events A and B most appropriately?

The answer is mutually exclusive, exhaustive, but not equally likely

I got this answer wrong. I am told the since the train is slow moving, the events are NOT equally likely. But I differ on this. For me, I chose the inputs on outcomes 1>Survives 2> Does not Survive. attaching the probability is 50%. The movement we focus on "slow moving" train - I feel we are subjective....further I can argue the slow moving train on a bridge vs on ground can have different outcomes :)

Am i not right ? should'nt the answer be Mutually exclusive, Exhaustive, Equally Likely - psl clarify

• It is a common mistake to assess a situation where two outcomes are possible as if the two outcomes are equally likely. This very rarely happens, generally only with tightly-constrained events that are artificially set up to produce those balanced outcomes. – Joffan Sep 5 '17 at 7:52

I agree that there's not enough information to conclude that $A,B$ are not equally likely, but given the choices, even without knowing the speed of the train, the claim "exactly 50%" is a less natural choice than the claim "not exactly 50%".