I have ten years of data, which I have averaged. Is it possible to calculate the probability that a future point we be less than a threshold based on my data?
For example, say the average is 0.065. How can I calculate the probability, P, that a future data point will be less than 0.1? I am looking at daily data points, where each day is an average of the daily data for the previous ten years.
I understand I may need something other than the average, like a distribution it something, but I do not know what that is. Depending on how specific an answer is, I can look up equations and formulas.