Assume that an event $X$ happens periodically over time with a period $P_X$. When it starts it lasts for a time $T_X$. $P_X$ and $T_X$ may vary slightly. There is no correlation between $P_X$ and $T_X$. For example:
- Event $X$ starts and lasts for 7 days.
- 20 days of nothing
- Event $X$ starts and lasts for 5 days.
- 22 days of nothingt
- Event $X$ starts and lasts for 6 days.
- 19 days of nothing
I have a data set over previous time and now I want to be able to predict the probability, as well as the confidence level, of the event occurring e.g 3 months from now, on a given date.
I hope you can help. And sorry if I'm not using the correct statistical terms. I have a decent math knowledge, but never did much with statistics.