I found this problem in a contest of years ago, but I'm not very good at probability, so I prefer to see how you do it:
A man gets drunk half of the days of a month. To open his house, he has a set of keys with $5$ keys that are all very similar, and only one key lets him enter his home. Even when he arrives sober he doesn't know which key is the correct one, and so he tries them one by one until he chooses the correct key. When he's drunk, he also tries the keys one by one, but he can't distinguish which keys he has tried before, so he may repeat the same key.
One day we saw that he opened the door on his third try.
What is the probability that he was drunk that day?