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A question over at one of the Reddit math subs asked the probability of having seen a specific card three hands in a row. It was answered and I understand the result - it's just the probability of a run of 3 where the probability of success is that of getting the specific card.

Thinking about it, I wondered how one would calculate the probability of the following:

Given a deck of $C$ distinct cards, dealing a hand of $H$ cards and noting them, then returning them to the deck, shuffling, repeat for $K$ total hands.

What is the probability of a run of at least $R$ consecutive hands out of the $K$ total hands where the intersection of the cards in the $R$-run is non-empty, that is, one or more of the same card(s) is present in all $R$ consecutive hands?

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  • $\begingroup$ Presumably reddit.com/r/theydidthemath/comments/50mil9/… $\endgroup$ – Henry Sep 3 '16 at 12:44
  • $\begingroup$ @Henry Yes! I did not include link, did not think that important. I PM'd the answers there with my question, one did no answer, other answered "Doubt there's anything remotely simple/efficient to do this, simulation is your friend here, but might ask over on stackexchange, some real experts there in combinatorics", hence the question. $\endgroup$ – AppleMyEye Sep 3 '16 at 22:40

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