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A company has 100 employees, and the average time an employee stays in the company is 3 years.

A new employee starts to work, and he observes that in the first month 3 other employees stopped working at the company.

Now, what is the chance of this happening? should be considered a normal occurrence? or this event is rare?.

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  • $\begingroup$ Can we assume the time for an employee to stay in the company to be an exponential distribution with mean $1/\lambda = 3$ year ? $\endgroup$ – Zubzub Aug 14 '16 at 13:39
  • $\begingroup$ Do the company still hire people on a regular basis such that the company retains an expected size of 100 employees? $\endgroup$ – Frenzy Li Aug 14 '16 at 13:40
  • $\begingroup$ Yes, that number is a constant, when someone leaves the company another employee takes the position. $\endgroup$ – Artemix Aug 15 '16 at 7:43
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If the company hires people uniformly then one can expect that in 3 years 100 people leave the company then each month $100/3 = 2.7 $ people leave company. So in 3 month one would expect $2.7\times 3 = 8.1$ people to leave the company. So it is very little chance to only 3 people leave in 3 month.

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  • $\begingroup$ Yes I edited my answer but still the question needs more information in order to come with an exact answer. $\endgroup$ – Alithewise Aug 14 '16 at 14:46

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