I created this problem based on the following probability riddle here.
You're a king, and you were given two groups of people, and a certain information about them.
First group has 2 people. One of them is 100% certain to be guilty of a crime. The other one is 50% likely to be guilty and 50% likely to be innocent, and you don't know which one is which.
Second group is composed by only 1 person. That person is 50% likely to be guilty of a crime and 50% likely to be innocent.
Now you need to imprison either the first group or the second group.
By choosing the first group, what is the probability that you imprison an innocent person? What if you imprison the second group?
My thought is that it wouldn't matter, in both cases is 50%, but according to the video it's not (I suggest checking it). Maybe you guys can shed some light on this.