So I know the house always win and someone has already figured this out. But I can't see the catch for my self
I was watching this video Best System for Roulette
Basically progressive betting on a 2-1 bet of the groups of 12 numbers
So you are risking 15,413 to win about $73 on average. That would mean you have to win 212 times for each loss. I calculate the odds of a group of 12 not being hit 12 spins in a row as ~1 in 95 chance (26/38)^12 = 0.0105. So clearly it is quite possible you go bust.
Now here is the catch to the video. The user says wait until there are 5 non wins thus now the wheel would have to have 17 spins in a row with out a win. So I calculate those odds at ~1 in 633 chance (26/38)^17 = 0.0015.
Now it seems reasonable, but what am I missing I know each spin is independent of the history of spins so why does it look like the chances of not busting have gone up?
I can reason that Person A is playing 12 spins and 12 spins only regardless of if Person A knows the history of the spins or not.
Where did I make a math mistake?