I have no idea what "actual probability" is. A Coin flip doesn't have a $50$% chance of being heads. If you were to look at all the exact physics and know what was going on you would know whether it would come up heads or tails. This is stupidly complicated so we just call it "random".
This is a very common theme in probability, and a very deep one. We use probability in real life because real life is too complicated to model exactly. It would be impossible to know everything that influences the weather that's why meteorologists pick a few things (pressure, temperature, wind, etc.) and use models and make guesses. "There is a $30$% chance of rain next Thursday" (not here in California of course. We know for a fact that this percentage is exactly $0$).
I mean lets take what you're saying to an extreme. Basically by doing this, you are in fact rejecting all of science. Every time I let go of something, it drops. How can we be sure that this isn't just an extremely unlikely string of flukes? What if the "actual probability" to drop is $.000001$% and we've just been very lucky? Well, the immediate consequence of this line of reasoning is that nothing matters and we can't understand anything and everything is pointless. I don't know about you but that's pretty depressing.
