Lets say you were writing a program to play checkers. Im simplifying the numbers, but the gist should be obvious.
Your program calculates the odds of Move A to have a 100 chances to win the game and 50 chances to lose. Move B has 1000 chances to win the game and 500 chances to lose.
Both moves result in a 2 to 1 chance to win, but how do you pick which move? Is it statistically better in any way to have more chances to win in the long run?
I think it is, as the more moves that can be made after Move B, the more chances you have to raise the probability of winning with subsequent moves. Am I wrong?