What is the probability of guessing all the Oscar winners? I was wondering about the probability of someone guessing all of the Oscar's winners. 
There are 24 categories. The number of movies per category may vary but we can assume a mean of 6 movies per category.  
So, would this mean that the probability of guessing all winners would be:
$\dfrac{1}{24\cdot 6}$??
 A: If you assume that each movie is equally likely to be chosen, then the probability of guessing the correct chosen movie in any given category is $ \frac {1} {\text{# of movies}} = \frac 1 6 $.
Then because we have 24 different categories, and furthermore, we assume that the probability of a movie winning in one category is independent of the other movies, then 
$
Pr(\text{guess all categories}) = Pr(\text{guess movie in cat-1},\text{guess movie in cat-2},\text{guess movie in cat-3},\text{guess movie in cat-4},\text{guess movie in cat-5},\text{guess movie in cat-6},...,\text{guess movie in cat-24}) \\ \ = (\frac 1 6)(\frac 1 6)(\frac 1 6)(\frac 1 6)(\frac 1 6)(\frac 1 6).... (\frac 1 6) = \frac 1 {6^{24}}
$
Just note that we made two assumptions: .1. equal distribution of winning .2. independence of categories
A: Presuming each of the twenty-four categories is chosen independently, and each category has six choices, there will be, in total, $\dfrac{1}{6^{24}}$ chance of guessing all categories correctly, which is a very small number, not $\dfrac{1}{24\cdot 6}$.
A: Assuming that each movie has an equal chance of winning and there are exactly 6 movies in each category, the probability of guessing all of them correctly would be
$\left(\frac{1}{6}\right)^{24}\approx2*10^{-19}$
