I thought about this problem the other day and my limited knowledge in basic probability theory was not enough to help me figure this one out. Say you have 3 probabilities:
- You have a 50% chance of dying tomorrow due to ant abduction(P(A) = 0.5).
- You have a 40% chance of dying tomorrow by being beaten by a baboon (P(B) = 0.4).
- You have a 30% chance of dying tomorrow by being cannibalized by Canadians (P(C) = 0.3).
Then, what is the probability that you will die tomorrow, assuming the previous three reasons are the only ways you could die?
I thought of doing something like P(A or B or C), and since A,B,C are disjoint, then P(A or B or C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C). This is clearly wrong, since the probabilities can't exceed 1. What would be an appropriate way of thinking about this?