If you look at your considerations in terms of the notation
$$a_{k+1}={3a_k+1\over 2^{A_k}} $$ where $a_k$ is odd and $A_k$ is such that also $a_{k+1}$ is odd then we can write for a number $a_k$ of the form
$$ a_k = 4j_k+3 \to a_{k+1}=6j_k+5 $$
so this is an increase of about $3/2 a_k$ per iteration, as long as the form $6j_k+5$ can again be expressed by the form $4j_{k+1}+3$
Putting this initial observation in some table we can write
$$\begin{array} {rrr|r|r|rrr|r}
a_k & \to & a_{k+1} &A&& a_k & \to & a_{k+1}&A \\
\hline
\color{red} {4j+3} & \color{red} {\to }&\color{red} { 6j+5 }&\color{red} {1}&&
\color{orange} {8j+1} & \color{orange} {\to} & \color{orange} {6j+1} &\color{orange} {2}\\
16j+13 & \to & 6j+5 &3&&32j+5 & \to & 6j+1 &4\\
64j+53 & \to & 6j+5 &5&&128j+21 & \to & 6j+1 &6 \\
\vdots &&& \vdots&& \vdots&&& \vdots
\end{array}
$$
and get a (hopefully) obvious scheme for the translation of any (positive) odd number $a_k$ into its hailstone-follower $a_{k+1}$ via the exponent $A_k$
Only the numbers of the form $a_k = 4j+3$ increase (red color), only the number $a_k=8j+1$ with $j=0$ stays constant (the "trivial" and only cycle) (orange color), all other numbers decrease by the transformation.
For me, this is a nice illustration of the core of the transformation-process in terms of one step. It says to me, that, as long as the result $6j_k \pm 1$ is representable by another definition $2 \cdot 2^{A_{k+1}}j_{k+1} + r_{k+1}$ then this iterates go up and/or down in the indicated way, and especially, the possible number of iterates of type $A=1$ can be arbitrary as long as the resulting numbers are again of the form defined by $A=1$ (in the other answer it was said that this is for numbers $a_0 = 2 \cdot 2^m j_0 + 3$ which shall grow up to $a_m = 2 \cdot 3^m j_0 + 3$ and then - at least one time - fall down. But no more general prognose can be made today - otherwise the Collatz conjecture would be decided.