I am playing in a racquetball tournament, and I am up against a player I have watched but never played before. I consider three possibilities for my prior model: we are equally talented, and each of us is equally likely to win each game; I am slightly better, and therefore I win each game independently with probability 0.6; or he is slightly better, and thus he wins each game independently with a probability 0.6. Before we play, I think that each of the three possibilities is equally likely. In our match we play until one player wins three games. I win the second game, but he wins the first, third, and fourth. After this match, in my posterior model, with what probability should I believe that my opponent is slightly better than I am?
I am getting an answer of 17/30. Can someone verify if it is correct? Thanks a lot