33 reputation
6
bio website
location
age
visits member for 1 year, 8 months
seen Dec 12 '13 at 0:41

Mar
23
awarded  Teacher
Jan
25
accepted Summation Rules
Jan
24
awarded  Commentator
Jan
24
comment Summation Rules
I'll wait a couple of days for corrections and unless I'm massively off-track warranting another answer, I'll accept this one.
Jan
24
answered Summation Rules
Jan
23
revised Summation Rules
added 366 characters in body
Jan
23
comment Summation Rules
For clarity, I'm asking if someone can step through it with more detail and explanation.
Jan
23
comment Summation Rules
Thanks for the pointer to 1.3 and 1.5 but the rest of this is kind of an anti-answer.
Jan
23
asked Summation Rules
Jan
4
answered Fair selection of most popular items among separate voting sets
Dec
19
awarded  Supporter
Dec
19
awarded  Scholar
Dec
19
comment How many rounds does it take to be 99% sure of reaching Expected Value?
Thanks a billion. I will accept this answer. Still curious if there are non-brute-force methods but it's gratifying to find it's a much harder question than I first thought.
Dec
19
accepted How many rounds does it take to be 99% sure of reaching Expected Value?
Dec
19
awarded  Editor
Dec
19
comment How many rounds does it take to be 99% sure of reaching Expected Value?
I edited this question to further clarify.
Dec
19
revised How many rounds does it take to be 99% sure of reaching Expected Value?
further clarified that I am only looking for *first* occurrences
Dec
19
comment How many rounds does it take to be 99% sure of reaching Expected Value?
Ok, thanks - well, at least it's a hard question. :-) Hopefully there will be some more suggestions on how to calculate it. I'm still trying to follow the break-even computations, btw - do they both fully take into account the 7/6 odds? I don't see both 7 and 6 in any of them.
Dec
18
comment How many rounds does it take to be 99% sure of reaching Expected Value?
Assume at least one bet, and that betting stops when EV is reached the first time. From what I understand, EV means what you'd gain or lose on average from participating in multiple rounds of a bet. The EV of the above example is (0.26 * -6) + (0.74 * 7) = 3.62 . On average, you will earn 3.62 on every bet. If on average you will earn 3.62 on every bet, then after n bets you'd expect 3.62n . Due to volatility you'd be below 3.62n sometimes, and above 3.62n sometimes. It sounds like you are saying that as n increases, you approach 50% likelihood that you will have never been above 3.62n.
Dec
18
comment How many rounds does it take to be 99% sure of reaching Expected Value?
The first answer really surprises me. The definition of EV means that in the long run, the return on your bets will average the EV. So how could it be that you will never even approach 50% likelihood of reaching the EV?