This tag is for questions about stopping times. Let $X = \{X_n : n \geq 0\}$ be a stochastic process. A stopping time $\tau$ with respect to $X$ is a random time such that for each $n \geq 0$, the event $\{\tau = n\}$ is completely determined by (at most) the total information known up to time $n$, $...

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14
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238 views

Does this Condition on Exit Times imply $X_t$ is a Local Supermartingale?

Let $(X_t)_{t\geq 0}$ be a continuous (or càdlàg), real-valued process, and define stopping times $$\tau_{s,a,b}=\inf~ [s,\infty)\cap\{t:X_t\notin (a,b)\}.$$ We can interpret $\tau_{s,a,b}$ as the ...
12
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3answers
2k views

Why is stopping time defined as a random variable?

I've been given a crash course in stochastic processes and martingales for the purposes of a semester project on them. The guy I'm working with has been, I feel, a little vague in the definition of ...
11
votes
3answers
1k views

What is meant by a stopping time?

TL;DR: is a stopping time some sort of event, or is it a point in discrete time, or something else entirely what is an example of something which is not a stopping time? is my understanding of the ...
7
votes
2answers
2k views

Density of first hitting time of Brownian motion with drift

I just started learning about Brownian motion and I am struggling with this question: Suppose that $X_t = B_t + ct$, where $B$ is a Brownian motion, $c$ is a constant. Set $H_a = \inf \{ t: X_t =a \}$...
7
votes
1answer
98 views

Gambling system theorem given by Doob

Let$\{X_n\}_{n=1}^{\infty}$ be a sequence of i.i.d. random variable. Let $\{\alpha_k\}_{k=1}^{\infty} $be a sequence of strictly increasing finite stopping times. Then $\{X_{\alpha_k+1}\}_{n=1}^{\...
6
votes
1answer
253 views

How to get closed form solutions to stopped martingale problems?

Way back when, I took a course in stochastic processes in college. I remember being frustrated by the plethora of abstract proofs without much in the way of how to use them to get actual results. It ...
6
votes
2answers
120 views

Showing that the first hitting time of a closed set is a stopping time.

I found this exercise online: I am stuggling with the last part of the second exercise, that is I am not able to show that $\tau = \sup_i \tau_i$. Obviously we have that $\tau \ge \sup_i \tau_i$, ...
5
votes
1answer
95 views

Bounding an expected hitting time

Consider a stochastic differential equation: $$dX_t = dW_t + \sin(X_t) dt, \, X_0 = x$$ where $W_t$ is a Wiener process. Define $$\tau_1 = \inf \{ t : X_t \in 2 \pi \mathbb{Z} \} \\ \tau_2 = \inf \...
5
votes
1answer
238 views

Interlacing stopping times

This question is posed on a measurable space $(\Omega,\mathscr{F}$) equipped with a filtration $\{\mathscr{F}_t\}$. Recall that a random time $\tau\colon\Omega\rightarrow[0,\infty]$ is said to be a ...
4
votes
1answer
459 views

Stopping time and Brownian motion (specific example)

Let $B$ be a Brownian motion. I want to show that $$ \inf\{t\geq0 \mid B(t)=\max_{x\in [0,1]}B(s)\} $$ is not a stopping time w.r.t. the standard filtration. How can one intuitively see that this ...
4
votes
1answer
54 views

Uniform integrability and stopping times

I want to know whether there is any example where $X_n$ is uniformly integrable, $N$ is a stopping time and $E[X_N] =\infty$? Or uniform integrability of $X_n$ implies that $E[X_N]< \infty$?
4
votes
2answers
204 views

Proving Galmarino's Test

Galmarino's Test gives a condition equivalent to being a stopping time. It says: Let $X$ be a continuous stochastic process with index set $\mathbb{R}_+$ (i.e. each sample path is a continuous ...
4
votes
2answers
86 views

Stopping time on an asymmetric random walk

Suppose that we are given an asymmetric random walk whose step is defined as $P(\xi_i = 1) = p$ and $P(\xi_i = -1) = 1-p$, where $p >1/2$. The hitting time, $T_x$ is defined as $\inf{\{n : S_n = x\...
4
votes
1answer
49 views

Stopping time in Markov chains

A random variable $T : \Omega \rightarrow ${$1,2,3...$} $\cup$ {$ \infty$} is called a stopping time if the event {$T=n$} depends only on $X_0 , X_1 ,X_2 ,..., X_n$ for $n = 0,1,2,...$ I have trouble ...
4
votes
1answer
476 views

Conditional Expectation of martingale at stopping time

I am trying to understand the implications of the optimal stopping theorem, which is why I tought of the following problem. Consider the continuous-time Martingale $X = (X_t)_{t \geq 0}$ and the ...
4
votes
1answer
71 views

A counterexample for supremum of stopping times

Let $\mathbb{F} = \{ \mathcal{F}_t \}_{t \geq 0}$ be a continuous time filteration. $\tau : \Omega \to [0, \infty]$ is called an $\mathbb{F}$-stopping time if $\{ \tau \leq t \} \in \mathcal{F}_t$ for ...
4
votes
1answer
73 views

Filtration of stopping time equal to the natural filtration of the stopped process

Given a probability space $(\Omega,\mathcal{F},P)$ and a process $X_{t}$ defined on it. We consider the natural Filtration generated by the process $\mathcal{F}_{t}=\sigma (X_{s}:s\leq t)$. Let $\tau$ ...
4
votes
1answer
129 views

Simple Random Walk: Hitting time of 1 is a.s. finite

Let $X_i, i \geq 0$ be i.i.d. random variables with $P[X_i=1]=P[X_i=-1]=1/2$ and consider $S_n = X_1 + \dotsc + X_n$ for $n \geq 1$, $S_0=0$, the symmetric simple random walk on $\mathbb{Z}$. Let $...
4
votes
1answer
99 views

Show that $P(T \le n + N \mid \mathscr F_n) > \epsilon$ where T is a stopping time

Given random variables $Y_1, Y_2, \ldots \stackrel{iid}{\sim} P(Y_i = 1) = p = 1 - q = 1 - P(Y_i = -1)$ where $p > q$ in a filtered probability space $(\Omega, \mathscr F, \{\mathscr F_n\}_{n \in \...
4
votes
1answer
167 views

Stopping times and hitting times for càdlàg processes

I can't find the proof of the following lemma in any book: LEMMA: If $X=\{X_t\}_{t\in T}$ is adapted and right continuous, then for every closed set $C \subset E $, the variable $\tau_{C}:=\inf\{t\...
4
votes
1answer
159 views

Stopped process of Brownian motion

I am baffled about the following problem: Let $(B_t)$ be a standard Brownian motion. Let $$ \tau:= \inf\{ t \geq 0 :B_t = x \} \wedge \inf\{ t \geq 0 :B_t = -y \}$$ be a stopping time, where $x,y >...
4
votes
1answer
154 views

Uniformly integrable martingale in a finite time horizon

Let $\{ M (t) \mid t \in [0,T] \}$ be a martingale and $\{ \tau_n \mid n = 1, 2, \ldots\}$ be an increasing sequence of stopping times such that $\tau_n \rightarrow \infty$ as $n \rightarrow \infty$. ...
4
votes
0answers
26 views

Comparison of stopped sub- and supermartingales when the future is discounted

Suppose we have a submartingale $X=\{X_t\}_t$ and a supermartingale $Y=\{Y_t\}_t$ which are adapted to the same filtration on a bounded set and have a common initial value $X_0=Y_0$. Suppose that $\...
4
votes
0answers
44 views

Stopping-time sigma-algebra and the case at infinity, definition question.

Assume you have a probability space $(\Omega,\mathcal{F},P)$, and you have a filtration $\{\mathcal{F}_t\}$ and a stopping time $\tau$. Then all the books I have seen define the stopping time sigma-...
4
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0answers
39 views

Application of Doob's optional stopping theorem to an elementary probability problem

The elementary probability problem is as follows. Let $(X_k)_{k\in\mathbb{N}}$ be a sequence of i.i.d. random variables such that $X_k \sim U(0,1)$ for each $k$. Define $\tau := \inf\{n\geq 0: \...
4
votes
2answers
94 views

Localisation in the proof of Ito's formula

I am reading Karatza's and Schreve's book "Stochastic Calculus and Brownian Motion" and I don't understand a strange thing as follows: Let $X=X_0 + A +M $ be a semimartingale, where $A$ is a ...
4
votes
0answers
228 views

Using Girsanov theorem to prove density of stopping time

Let $B$ be a standard Brownian motion and for $a>0$ and $b>0$, and set $$\sigma_{a,b} = \inf\{t\,:\, B_t + bt = a\}.$$ There are at least two ways to solve the following problem (the other one ...
4
votes
0answers
194 views

Dose “optional stopping theorem” imply “optional sampling theorem”?

Suppose $X$ is a martingale,$\tau$ and $\sigma$ are two stopping times which satisfy (a)$\sigma\le\tau$ and (b)the "optional stopping theorem" holds,that is to say: $$\mathbb E[X_\sigma]=\mathbb E[...
4
votes
0answers
757 views

Law of a geometric brownian motion first hitting time (proof checking)

I need to use it in a small step in the middle of a simulation and I think I'm not getting correct results to this probabilities and so for my all subsequent simulation. Could someone ...
4
votes
0answers
80 views

Markov chains and natural filtration

I have the following problem Consider a homogeneous Markov chain $(X_n)$ with countable state set $E$. Suppose that $A$ is a proper subset of $E$ and consider the stopping times $\tau^0=0 $ and $\...
4
votes
0answers
344 views

stopping time expectation for gambler's ruin

2 players A and B start with x & y dollars respectively, and they bet against each other 1 dollar each time by tossing a fair coin. I let $X_n = x + \sum_{i=1}^{n}\xi_i$ where $\xi_i$ are i.i.d. ...
3
votes
2answers
2k views

Expected stopping time of brownian motion

I've been looking at this for some time now and still have no sensible solutions, can somebody help me out please. Say I define the stopping time of a Brownian motion as followed: $$\tau(a) = \min (t ...
3
votes
2answers
2k views

Sum of two stopping times is a stopping time?

Let $\sigma$ and $\tau$ be two stopping times in $\mathscr{F}_t$ and let this filtration satisfy all the usual conditions. Question: Is $\sigma + \tau$ a stopping time? Attempt at a solution: I ...
3
votes
1answer
61 views

Exist $\alpha < \infty$, $\beta > 0$ such that $\mathbb{P}\{T_\lambda > t\} \le \alpha e^{-\beta t}?$

Let $B_t$ be a standard one-dimensional Brownian motion. Suppose $\lambda > 0$ and let$$T_\lambda = \min\{t : |B_t| = \lambda\}.$$Do there exist $\alpha < \infty$ and $\beta > 0$ (which may ...
3
votes
2answers
32 views

Simple question regarding stopping times.

I have this exercise regarding stopping times, but I am not able to solve it. You have a probability space $(\Omega, \mathcal{F},P)$, with a filtration $\{\mathcal{F}_t\}$}. You have two stopping ...
3
votes
1answer
98 views

how to prove $(X_{n})_{n\in \mathbb N}$ and $(Y_{n})_{n\in \mathbb N}$ are supermartingale.and $(Y_{n})_{n\in \mathbb N}$ is convergence to -7

Let $p \in [0 , \frac{1}{2}] $ and $\eta_{i}$ be i.i.d random variables and $P(\eta_{i}=1)=p$ and $P(\eta_{i}=-1)=1-p$ and $\mathcal F_{n}=\sigma(\eta_{1},\cdots,\eta_{n})$ and $X_{n}=\sum_{i=1}^{n}\...
3
votes
1answer
133 views

Find the distribution of $T_a=\inf\{n\ge 0: R_{n}\gt a\}$ for fixed number $a\gt 0$

Suppose $R_{n}=\sum_{i=1}^{n} X_{i}$ for $n\ge 1$ and $R_{0}=0$ , where $X_{i}\gt 0$ are independent and identically distributed. Find the probability law of the stopping time $T_a=\inf\{n\ge 0: R_{n}...
3
votes
2answers
268 views

coupon collector problem for different number of copies of each coupon type

I would like to pose a question on a variation on the classical coupon collector's problem: coupon type $i$ is to be collected $k_i$ times. What is the expected stopping time or the expected number of ...
3
votes
1answer
40 views

A martingale characterization

I saw the following characterization of martingales (without proof) in some lecture notes I found on the web and I haven't been able to produce a proof it. Let $X$ be an adapted process. If $E[X_{\...
3
votes
1answer
50 views

Determine $E\sum_0^\infty X_n1_{(T=n)}$

$X_T = \sum_0^\infty X_n 1_{(T=n)}$ where $T$ is a stopping time and $(X_n)$ is a martingale. Show that if $T$ is bounded then $EX_T = EX_0$: $T \leq N$, and then consider $X_T = X_{T\wedge N} = \...
3
votes
1answer
65 views

Measurability of the zero-crossing time of Brownian motion

I have the following random time $\tau = \inf\{t > 0: W_t = 0\}$ where $(W_t)_{t\geq 0}$ is Brownian motion with almost surely continuous paths and $W_0 = 0$ a.s. I need to prove that $\tau$ is ...
3
votes
1answer
56 views

On the proof of lemma 1.2.4 of Stroock and Varadhan A question concerning stopping times

In the book Multidimensional diffusion processes, of Stroock and Varadhan one reads (page 23): This is the proof of $(i)$. Here the authors say Define $f_t$ on $(\{\tau \leq t\}, \mathcal{F}_t ...
3
votes
1answer
108 views

Markov and strong Markov properties

In my study of strong Markov property of an RCLL canonical Markov process I encounter the following definition: Suppose $Y_t:\omega\rightarrow \omega(t)$ is canonical Markov process with respect to ...
3
votes
1answer
128 views

Brownian motion proof of Dirichlet problem

I am reading the proof of the Dirichlet theorem stated in the following form: Theorem: Let $D$ be a bounded domain in $\mathbb{R}^d$ such that every boundary point satisfies the Poincare cone ...
3
votes
1answer
92 views

Tower Property for Expectations and Stopping Times

Let $(\Omega,(\mathcal{F_t})_{t\geq0},P)$ be a filtered proability space with $X\in L^1(P)$ and two stopping times $S$ and $T$. Show that \begin{equation*} \mathbb{E}(\mathbb{E}(X|\mathcal{F}_T)|\...
3
votes
1answer
242 views

The expected time until reaching a specified set in a Markov chain

I am reading an article in which they discuss a specific Markov chain in an example, and it turns out I need to sharpen up my Markov knowledge. First the setup. I have a continuous time Markov chain ...
3
votes
1answer
68 views

Determining if some random variable is a stopping time

I am stuck on this issue: Let $(B_t)$ be a Brownian motion. We know that since $\{0\}$ is a closed set in $\mathbb{R}$ and that $(B_t)$ is a continuous adapted process, $$ \tau:= \inf \{ t\geq 0 : ...
3
votes
1answer
272 views

A martingale with bounded increments either converges or diverges to both infinities a.s.

I am reading page 236 "Probability : theory and examples" by R. Durrett. Theorem 31. Let $X_1, X_2,\ldots$ be a martingale with $|X_{n+1}-X_n|\leq M<\infty$. Let $C=\{\lim X_n \;\;\; \text{exists ...
3
votes
1answer
530 views

Expectation of brownian motion at hitting time

Am i correct in my derivation? I want to calculate $\mathbb{E}B_{\tau_a}$. From the definition of the hitting time i get $B_{\tau_a}=a$, so $$\mathbb{E}B_{\tau_a}=\mathbb{E}a=a$$ I am new to the ...
3
votes
2answers
111 views

Stochastic variables independent given Tau

Say we have a filtration $(\mathbb{F}_s)$, and a stopping time $\tau$ w.r.t. to that filtration.Let $X_t$ be a continuous stochastic process (not required to be adapted to the mentioned filtration), ...