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8
votes
0answers
217 views

Sufficient condition in terms of stopping times for a stochastic process to be a local supermartingale

(Question edited in response to Nate's comment) Let $(X_t)_{t\geq 0}$ be a continuous (or càdlàg), real-valued process, and define stopping times $\tau_{s,a,b}=\inf~ [s,\infty)\cap\{t:X_t\notin ...
4
votes
0answers
177 views

Using Girsanov theorem to prove density of stopping time

Let $B$ be a standard Brownian motion and for $a>0$ and $b>0$, and set $$\sigma_{a,b} = \inf\{t\,:\, B_t + bt = a\}.$$ There are at least two ways to solve the following problem (the other one ...
4
votes
0answers
176 views

Dose “optional stopping theorem” imply “optional sampling theorem”?

Suppose $X$ is a martingale,$\tau$ and $\sigma$ are two stopping times which satisfy (a)$\sigma\le\tau$ and (b)the "optional stopping theorem" holds,that is to say: $$\mathbb E[X_\sigma]=\mathbb ...
4
votes
0answers
70 views

Markov chains and natural filtration

I have the following problem Consider a homogeneous Markov chain $(X_n)$ with countable state set $E$. Suppose that $A$ is a proper subset of $E$ and consider the stopping times $\tau^0=0 $ and ...
4
votes
0answers
301 views

stopping time expectation for gambler's ruin

2 players A and B start with x & y dollars respectively, and they bet against each other 1 dollar each time by tossing a fair coin. I let $X_n = x + \sum_{i=1}^{n}\xi_i$ where $\xi_i$ are i.i.d. ...
3
votes
0answers
47 views

Stopping times and hitting times for cadlag processes

I can't find the proof of the following lemma in any book: LEMMA: If $X=\{X_t\}_{t\in T}$ is adapted and right continuous, then for every closed set $C \subset E $, the variable $\tau_{C}:=\inf\{t\in ...
3
votes
0answers
23 views

Conditional expectation and stopping time $\mathbb{E}(X1_{T\leq m}|\mathcal{F}_{T\wedge m})=\mathbb{E}(X1_{T\leq m}|\mathcal{F}_T)$

Let $X$ be a random variable and $T$ a stopping time in a filtrated probability space. If $m > 0$ is it true that: $$\mathbb{E}\left(X1_{T\leq m}|\mathcal{F}_{T\wedge ...
3
votes
0answers
68 views

A Markov Chain probability, conditioned on a random time.

My question: Upon reading theory about diffusion processes, i came across an argument which i believe simplifies to this: Say we have a Borel measurable set $A$ (if it matters you can set $A=\lbrace ...
3
votes
0answers
44 views

Charaterize the $\mathcal{F}_\tau$ a sigma algebra for the stopping time $\tau$

Consider a stochastic process $X: [0, \infty) \times \Omega \to \mathbb{R}^d$ We define $\mathcal{F}_t = \sigma(X(s), 0 \leq s \leq t)$ The sigma algebra generated by the sets $\{\omega: X(s,\omega) ...
3
votes
0answers
43 views

Strong markov property in two dimensional Brownian motion

I don't understand the following claim from my book: Let $(B_t)$ be a standard Brownian motion. Let $u:\Omega \rightarrow \mathbb{R}$ be a continuous function, where $\Omega$ is a domain and $B(x, ...
3
votes
0answers
535 views

Law of a geometric brownian motion first hitting time (proof checking)

I need to use it in a small step in the middle of a simulation and I think I'm not getting correct results to this probabilities and so for my all subsequent simulation. Could someone ...
3
votes
0answers
55 views

Find an example such that $\tau$ is a stopping time and $\mathcal{F}_\tau$ and $\mathcal{F}_\infty$ differ on $\{\tau = \infty\}$.

I need to find an example such that the following is true: $\tau$ is a stopping time and $\mathcal{F}$ is a filtration defined on $\mathbb{R}_+$. Let $\mathcal{F}_\tau$ denote the stopped ...
3
votes
0answers
283 views

Essential supremum of a conditional expectation

Given the function \begin{equation} P(x,t) := \sup\limits_{t \le \tau \le T} E\left( g(X^{t,x}_{\tau}) \right) \end{equation} where $X^{t,x}$ is the unique solution to the SDE \begin{equation} X_u ...
3
votes
0answers
125 views

Finite stopping times

I've come across two statements in a proof that I don't really understand. Let $X_{i}$ be iid with values in $\{-1,0,1\}$ all with positive probability. Define $S_{n}=\sum_{i=0}^{n}X_{i}$ and the ...
2
votes
0answers
21 views

Application of Doob's optional stopping theorem to an elementary probability problem

The elementary probability problem is as follows. Let $(X_k)_{k\in\mathbb{N}}$ be a sequence of i.i.d. random variables such that $X_k \sim U(0,1)$ for each $k$. Define $\tau := \inf\{n\geq 0: ...
2
votes
0answers
17 views

Mean of overcooking time

This question came up this week when I had to put my rice in the microwave for a third time. Suppose the perfect cooking time for a meal is given by a discrete random variable $X$ with values in ...
2
votes
0answers
27 views

Optimal stopping time problem

I'm trying to solve a problem: $$ \sup_{0 \leq \tau \leq 1} E W_{\tau - \varepsilon}, $$ where $W$ is a Wiener process and $\varepsilon$ is a fixed real number. I've tried to approximate a Wiener ...
2
votes
0answers
35 views

An intuitive interpretation of stopping time

I have the following definition of exercise time. Let $T\in\mathbb{N}$ with $T>0$, let $(\Omega,\mathcal{F})$ be a probability space with the $\sigma$-algebra $\mathcal{F}=2^{\Omega}$ and let ...
2
votes
0answers
50 views

Solving Stochastic Differential Equation

Let $\beta > 0$, $0 < \gamma < 1$, and let $\tau$ be the first hitting time: $$\tau = \inf\{t:t \geq 0, |W_t| = \pi /4\}$$ Solve the SDE in the random interval $0 \leq t \leq \tau$ $$dX_t = ...
2
votes
0answers
27 views

Stopping time distribution and transforms with 1-dimension B-motion.

Let $W_t$ be a 1-dimensional Brownian Motion. For $x>0$, we define: $$\tau_{x} = inf \{ t \geq 0; |W_t| = x\}$$ Compute $E[e^{-s\tau_x}]$ and prove that $\tau_x$ is equal in distribution to ...
2
votes
0answers
20 views

Verify argument about random time being measurable w.r.t. a reversed BM increment process.

Let $B$ be a brownian motion (assume for convenient notation that it is two-sided). Let $T:=\sup\{t<2 :\vert B_t-B_1\vert\geq 1\}.$ Let $Y$ be the process $s\mapsto (B_T-B_{T+s})$. I want to argue ...
2
votes
0answers
20 views

Application of Laplace transform to stopping times and expectations

Let $X_k$ be i.i.d. random variables such that $E[X_1]=m<\infty$. Consider $S_n = \sum_{k=1}^{n} X_k$. Let $\tau$ be a stopping time independent of $X_k$ with respect to the filtration $\{F_n\}_{n ...
2
votes
0answers
27 views

If $(F_t)_t$ is a filtration, $T$ is a stopping time and $Y$ is $F_T$-measurable, then $1_{\left\{T=s\right\}}Y$ is $F_s$-measurable

Let $(\Omega,\mathcal A)$ be a measurable space $I\subseteq[0,\infty)$ $\mathbb F=(\mathcal F_t)_{t\in I}$ be a filtration on $(\Omega,\mathcal A)$ $\tau$ be a $\mathbb F$-stopping time $\mathcal ...
2
votes
0answers
65 views

Brownian Motion Hitting Times

I am reading through Walsh's Knowing the Odds book and came across this problem. Let $B_t$ be Brownian motion. Find the probability that $B_t$ hits plus one and then minus one before time one. I am ...
2
votes
0answers
41 views

Limit of decreasing sequences of markov time (stopping time) is markov time?

Let $(\Omega, \mathcal{F}, \{\mathcal{F}_t\}_{t \geqslant 0}, \mathbb{P})$ be a filtered probability space and let $\tau_n \geqslant \tau_{n+1}$ be a markov time (stopping time) with respect to ...
2
votes
0answers
112 views

Brownian motion stopped at the hitting time of an independent Brownian Motion

While I was working on the exit time of planar BM out of a square I came across the following observation, which I cannot grasp. I define this exit time as $$\tau = \inf\{t \geq 0: \lvert B(t)\rvert ...
2
votes
0answers
37 views

2D Brownian Motion — Does this argument work?

Consider a 2D Brownian Motion $(X_1(t),X_2(t))$ starting at $(x_1,x_2) \in \mathbb{R}^2$. For every $s\geq0$, let $$\tau_s = \inf \left\{t \geq 0 \mid X_1(t) - x_1 > s \right\}\qquad Y_s = ...
2
votes
0answers
110 views

Why do we use an exponential Martingale for the stopping time of a BIASED random walk?

The following is a passage from the lecture notes: Let a simple random move to the right with probability $p$ and to the left with probability $q = 1 − p$. We want the probability that it hits ...
2
votes
0answers
27 views

Formal argument on independence of consecutive hitting times of a Markov chain.

I'm refering to the question: Differences of consecutive hitting times. I'm interested in the independence of consequtive hitting times of certain values of a Markov chain. And I do "understand" the ...
2
votes
0answers
54 views

Ito's formula applied to a stochastic function

The Ito's formula stated in my book is in the form $F(t,X_t)$, where $F: \mathbb{R}^{d+1} \rightarrow \mathbb{R}$ is a $d+1-$dimensional deterministic $C^{1,2}$ function and $(X_t)_{t \geq0}$ is a ...
2
votes
0answers
90 views

What is the distribution of the area between a Brownian Bridge and the x-axis?

Lets say that we have a Standard Brownian Bridge ($\sigma=1$) with endpoints $(0,0),(1,0)$ Is there a way to derive the distribution of the area between a sample path of this bridge and the x-axis?? ...
2
votes
0answers
78 views

Optimal Stopping for One-Armed Bandit with a Fixed, Known Payout.

I'm very new to bandit problems (apologies if I've formatted my question incorrectly), but I have to solve the optimal stopping of what I think is a very simple case. I have a bandit problem with one ...
2
votes
0answers
36 views

Comparing hitting time of two random walks

There are two random walks, $S^t_i=S^{t-1}_i+ X_i^t$ for $i=1,2$, $X^t_i$ i.i.d they have boundaries $h_1$ and $h_2$ respectively. I'm wondering if it's possible to calculate the probability that one ...
2
votes
0answers
130 views

Stopping times, open sets and Brownian Motion

Let $B_t$ be a brownian motion started at 0. I am trying to prove that $\tau$, defined as: $$ \tau = \inf\{t > 0 \mbox{ }|\mbox{ } \left|B_t\right| \geq \frac{1}{1+t} \} $$ is a stopping time with ...
2
votes
0answers
148 views

Stopping time and filtration

My question is as follow: Let $(\Omega,\cal{F}_\infty,\{\cal{F}_t\},\mathbb{P})$ be the filtred probability space. Further, denote $\cal{F}^*_t$ as the usual augmented filtration. Now, given a ...
2
votes
0answers
61 views

Lower bound for stochastic process

Suppose the non-negative stochastic process $(X_t,Y_t)$ is such that $E\{X_t - X_a | Y_u \in A \,\,\forall u \in [a,t] \} \geq Z(A)(t-a)$. Let $T_{A}$ be the time of a visit to $A$. Assuming that the ...
1
vote
0answers
10 views

$T$ stopping time, does $\mathcal{F}_T \subseteq \mathcal{F}_\infty$?

I am confused about the definition of $\mathcal{F}_T$, where $T$ is a stopping time. From three different books we find two different definitions: (Karatzas and Shreve; Protter) Events $A \in ...
1
vote
0answers
31 views

Optimal strategy for a moment to take an exam

In my problem set there was an exercise involving optimal stopping theory. Here is the problem: There is an exam, a list of $n$ questions and $n$ students. Student $A$ knows answers to $k$ of them. He ...
1
vote
0answers
30 views

Stopping Time Sum of Random Variables

Let $X_1,...,X_t$ be an i.i.d. sequence of random variables with support $\{a,-b\}$, where $a,b>0$, and measure $P(a)=p_1$, $P(-b)=p_2$. Assume $p_1a-p_2b<0$, so that $E[X_t]<0$. Let ...
1
vote
0answers
36 views

Show that for every $p >0$, $E[\sup \limits_{t \leq L_n} |R_n(t)-t|^p]=O(n^{-p/2})$

I am trying to prove that $E[\sup \limits_{t \leq L_n} |R_n(t)-t|^p]=O(n^{-p/2})$ where $\rho(n)$ is a solution of the following Stochastic differential equation \begin{equation} \rho_n^2(t)=2 ...
1
vote
0answers
31 views

How can a stopping time be independent of its stochastic process?

I was reading about a special case of Wald's equation, which led me to the following question: If $X_t$ is a sequence of iid RV's, and $\tau$ is a stopping time for this discrete stochastic process, ...
1
vote
0answers
39 views

Conditional Probability, Levy Process

Let $(X_t)_{t\in\mathbb{R}}$ be a (double-sided) Levy Process, i.e. $X_0 = 0$ almost surely, the functions $t\mapsto X_t\omega$, $\omega\in\Omega$, are right-continuous with left limits and the ...
1
vote
0answers
32 views

Hitting time for Browian motion with upper reflecting boundary

I was wondering if there exist a known distribution function or a nice closed form describing the first hitting time to a given threshold $a$, $T_a$, for a Brownian motion bounded by a upper ...
1
vote
0answers
24 views

Proving almost sure finiteness of a stopping time

Let $M_t$ be a local martingale and $S_t = \sup_{0 \leq s \leq t}M_s$ its running supremum. How can I show that the stopping time $T=\inf\{t \geq 0 : S_t - M_t = a\}$ for an arbitrary $a>0$ is ...
1
vote
0answers
17 views

Exponential decay of a stopping time for an Ito diffusion process

Let $dX_t=dB_t + a \cot(X_t)dt$, with $X_0=x \in (0,\pi)$, where $a$ is a specific constant so that the lifetime of the process is infinite almost surely. The process has a transition density which ...
1
vote
0answers
19 views

k-th hitting time is a stopping time

Could you check if my solution is correct? I find the filtrations quite tricky. Here is the problem: Let $\{X_n\}_{n \in \mathbb{N}}$ be a stochastic process and $B$ a borel set in $\mathbb{R}^N$. ...
1
vote
0answers
32 views

Is this a stopping time?

Let $X_1, X_2, ...$ be a sequence of i.i.d. non-negative random variables. Let $\tau = \inf \{n : \{ \sum^{n-1} _{i=1} X_i \leq 1 \} \cap \{ \sum^{n} _{i=1} X_i \geq 1 \} \}$. Is $\tau$ a ...
1
vote
0answers
31 views

jump-diffusion hitting time

Suppose I have a stochastic process $dS_t= rS_t dt + \sigma S_t dW_t + dJ_t$ where $W_t$ is a brownian motion and $J_t$ a compound poisson process of parameter $\lambda$ with lognormal jump size, ...
1
vote
0answers
90 views

Expected value of Brownian Bridge evaluated at a stopping time

Denote by $B$ a Brownian bridge process, by $B(\omega)$ a realization of it and by $B_t$ the projection to the time point $t \in [0,1]$. Now let $c < 0$ and $$t^*(\omega) = \sup\{t \in [0,1]: ...
1
vote
0answers
36 views

Good reference on stopping times and continuous time change

I've been trying to look at stopping times and continuous time change in martingales but have trouble understanding without some concrete examples. Anyone knows of any good references that might be ...