This tag is for questions about stopping times. Let $X = \{X_n : n \geq 0\}$ be a stochastic process. A stopping time $\tau$ with respect to $X$ is a random time such that for each $n \geq 0$, the event $\{\tau = n\}$ is completely determined by (at most) the total information known up to time $n$, $...

learn more… | top users | synonyms

13
votes
0answers
234 views

Does this Condition on Exit Times imply $X_t$ is a Local Supermartingale?

Let $(X_t)_{t\geq 0}$ be a continuous (or càdlàg), real-valued process, and define stopping times $$\tau_{s,a,b}=\inf~ [s,\infty)\cap\{t:X_t\notin (a,b)\}.$$ We can interpret $\tau_{s,a,b}$ as the ...
4
votes
0answers
39 views

Application of Doob's optional stopping theorem to an elementary probability problem

The elementary probability problem is as follows. Let $(X_k)_{k\in\mathbb{N}}$ be a sequence of i.i.d. random variables such that $X_k \sim U(0,1)$ for each $k$. Define $\tau := \inf\{n\geq 0: \...
4
votes
0answers
228 views

Using Girsanov theorem to prove density of stopping time

Let $B$ be a standard Brownian motion and for $a>0$ and $b>0$, and set $$\sigma_{a,b} = \inf\{t\,:\, B_t + bt = a\}.$$ There are at least two ways to solve the following problem (the other one ...
4
votes
0answers
193 views

Dose “optional stopping theorem” imply “optional sampling theorem”?

Suppose $X$ is a martingale,$\tau$ and $\sigma$ are two stopping times which satisfy (a)$\sigma\le\tau$ and (b)the "optional stopping theorem" holds,that is to say: $$\mathbb E[X_\sigma]=\mathbb E[...
4
votes
0answers
713 views

Law of a geometric brownian motion first hitting time (proof checking)

I need to use it in a small step in the middle of a simulation and I think I'm not getting correct results to this probabilities and so for my all subsequent simulation. Could someone ...
4
votes
0answers
79 views

Markov chains and natural filtration

I have the following problem Consider a homogeneous Markov chain $(X_n)$ with countable state set $E$. Suppose that $A$ is a proper subset of $E$ and consider the stopping times $\tau^0=0 $ and $\...
4
votes
0answers
335 views

stopping time expectation for gambler's ruin

2 players A and B start with x & y dollars respectively, and they bet against each other 1 dollar each time by tossing a fair coin. I let $X_n = x + \sum_{i=1}^{n}\xi_i$ where $\xi_i$ are i.i.d. ...
3
votes
0answers
63 views

Strong Markov property proof

Let $X$ be a Markov chain with state space $\mathcal{S}$ and denote $\mathbb{N} := \{0,1, \cdots\}$. I need to show that for any stopping time $\tau < \infty$ and any bounded measurable function $\...
3
votes
0answers
20 views

Expectation related to Wiener process using strong Markov property

Can you help me to understand a result I found in Krylov's book "Introduction to stochastic calculus". First, I will introduce some notations: $w_t,t\ge 0$ denotes a Wiener process. $\mathcal{B}(...
3
votes
0answers
49 views

Conditional Expectation.

Let $X$ be a random variable in $L^2(\Omega, \Sigma, P)$ and $\mathcal G$ a sub-$\sigma$-algebra of $\Sigma$. Prove that $E[(X-E[X\mid\mathcal G])^2] \le E[(X-E[X])^2]$. As conditional expectation ...
3
votes
0answers
25 views

Conditional expectation and stopping time $\mathbb{E}(X1_{T\leq m}|\mathcal{F}_{T\wedge m})=\mathbb{E}(X1_{T\leq m}|\mathcal{F}_T)$

Let $X$ be a random variable and $T$ a stopping time in a filtrated probability space. If $m > 0$ is it true that: $$\mathbb{E}\left(X1_{T\leq m}|\mathcal{F}_{T\wedge m}\right)=\mathbb{E}\left(X1_{...
3
votes
0answers
23 views

Application of Laplace transform to stopping times and expectations

Let $X_k$ be i.i.d. random variables such that $E[X_1]=m<\infty$. Consider $S_n = \sum_{k=1}^{n} X_k$. Let $\tau$ be a stopping time independent of $X_k$ with respect to the filtration $\{F_n\}_{n \...
3
votes
0answers
60 views

Charaterize the $\mathcal{F}_\tau$ a sigma algebra for the stopping time $\tau$

Consider a stochastic process $X: [0, \infty) \times \Omega \to \mathbb{R}^d$ We define $\mathcal{F}_t = \sigma(X(s), 0 \leq s \leq t)$ The sigma algebra generated by the sets $\{\omega: X(s,\omega) \...
3
votes
0answers
50 views

Strong markov property in two dimensional Brownian motion

I don't understand the following claim from my book: Let $(B_t)$ be a standard Brownian motion. Let $u:\Omega \rightarrow \mathbb{R}$ be a continuous function, where $\Omega$ is a domain and $B(x, \...
3
votes
0answers
109 views

What is the distribution of the area between a Brownian Bridge and the x-axis?

Lets say that we have a Standard Brownian Bridge ($\sigma=1$) with endpoints $(0,0),(1,0)$ Is there a way to derive the distribution of the area between a sample path of this bridge and the x-axis?? ...
3
votes
0answers
61 views

Find an example such that $\tau$ is a stopping time and $\mathcal{F}_\tau$ and $\mathcal{F}_\infty$ differ on $\{\tau = \infty\}$.

I need to find an example such that the following is true: $\tau$ is a stopping time and $\mathcal{F}$ is a filtration defined on $\mathbb{R}_+$. Let $\mathcal{F}_\tau$ denote the stopped $\sigma$-...
3
votes
0answers
316 views

Essential supremum of a conditional expectation

Given the function \begin{equation} P(x,t) := \sup\limits_{t \le \tau \le T} E\left( g(X^{t,x}_{\tau}) \right) \end{equation} where $X^{t,x}$ is the unique solution to the SDE \begin{equation} X_u ...
3
votes
0answers
127 views

Finite stopping times

I've come across two statements in a proof that I don't really understand. Let $X_{i}$ be iid with values in $\{-1,0,1\}$ all with positive probability. Define $S_{n}=\sum_{i=0}^{n}X_{i}$ and the ...
2
votes
0answers
38 views

Sigma algebra generated by the stopped process.

Let $(X_n)_{n \geq 0}$ be a sequence of random variables. Let $\mathcal{F}_n = \sigma (X_0, \dots, X_n)$ be a filtration and $T$ is a $(\mathcal{F}_n)_{n\geq 0}$-stopping time. I want to understand ...
2
votes
0answers
43 views

Taylor expansion and Ito when the value function has a non differentiable point

I am trying to solve a multi-period free boundary problem, of an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process, where each stopping decision at each period adds a different constant (penalty or bonus). Solving with a ...
2
votes
0answers
48 views

Show that for every $p >0$, $E[\sup \limits_{t \leq L_n} |R_n(t)-t|^p]=O(n^{-p/2})$

I am trying to prove that $E[\sup \limits_{t \leq L_n} |R_n(t)-t|^p]=O(n^{-p/2})$ where $\rho(n)$ is a solution of the following Stochastic differential equation \begin{equation} \rho_n^2(t)=2 \int_0^...
2
votes
0answers
18 views

Mean of overcooking time

This question came up this week when I had to put my rice in the microwave for a third time. Suppose the perfect cooking time for a meal is given by a discrete random variable $X$ with values in ...
2
votes
0answers
32 views

Optimal stopping time problem

I'm trying to solve a problem: $$ \sup_{0 \leq \tau \leq 1} E W_{\tau - \varepsilon}, $$ where $W$ is a Wiener process and $\varepsilon$ is a fixed real number. I've tried to approximate a Wiener ...
2
votes
0answers
50 views

An intuitive interpretation of stopping time

I have the following definition of exercise time. Let $T\in\mathbb{N}$ with $T>0$, let $(\Omega,\mathcal{F})$ be a probability space with the $\sigma$-algebra $\mathcal{F}=2^{\Omega}$ and let $(\...
2
votes
0answers
53 views

Solving Stochastic Differential Equation

Let $\beta > 0$, $0 < \gamma < 1$, and let $\tau$ be the first hitting time: $$\tau = \inf\{t:t \geq 0, |W_t| = \pi /4\}$$ Solve the SDE in the random interval $0 \leq t \leq \tau$ $$dX_t = -(...
2
votes
0answers
31 views

Stopping time distribution and transforms with 1-dimension B-motion.

Let $W_t$ be a 1-dimensional Brownian Motion. For $x>0$, we define: $$\tau_{x} = inf \{ t \geq 0; |W_t| = x\}$$ Compute $E[e^{-s\tau_x}]$ and prove that $\tau_x$ is equal in distribution to $x^2\...
2
votes
0answers
30 views

If $(F_t)_t$ is a filtration, $T$ is a stopping time and $Y$ is $F_T$-measurable, then $1_{\left\{T=s\right\}}Y$ is $F_s$-measurable

Let $(\Omega,\mathcal A)$ be a measurable space $I\subseteq[0,\infty)$ $\mathbb F=(\mathcal F_t)_{t\in I}$ be a filtration on $(\Omega,\mathcal A)$ $\tau$ be a $\mathbb F$-stopping time $\mathcal F_\...
2
votes
0answers
76 views

Brownian Motion Hitting Times

I am reading through Walsh's Knowing the Odds book and came across this problem. Let $B_t$ be Brownian motion. Find the probability that $B_t$ hits plus one and then minus one before time one. I am ...
2
votes
0answers
50 views

Limit of decreasing sequences of markov time (stopping time) is markov time?

Let $(\Omega, \mathcal{F}, \{\mathcal{F}_t\}_{t \geqslant 0}, \mathbb{P})$ be a filtered probability space and let $\tau_n \geqslant \tau_{n+1}$ be a markov time (stopping time) with respect to ...
2
votes
0answers
129 views

Brownian motion stopped at the hitting time of an independent Brownian Motion

While I was working on the exit time of planar BM out of a square I came across the following observation, which I cannot grasp. I define this exit time as $$\tau = \inf\{t \geq 0: \lvert B(t)\rvert ...
2
votes
0answers
41 views

2D Brownian Motion — Does this argument work?

Consider a 2D Brownian Motion $(X_1(t),X_2(t))$ starting at $(x_1,x_2) \in \mathbb{R}^2$. For every $s\geq0$, let $$\tau_s = \inf \left\{t \geq 0 \mid X_1(t) - x_1 > s \right\}\qquad Y_s = X_2(\...
2
votes
0answers
194 views

Why do we use an exponential Martingale for the stopping time of a BIASED random walk?

The following is a passage from the lecture notes: Let a simple random move to the right with probability $p$ and to the left with probability $q = 1 − p$. We want the probability that it hits ...
2
votes
0answers
30 views

Formal argument on independence of consecutive hitting times of a Markov chain.

I'm refering to the question: Differences of consecutive hitting times. I'm interested in the independence of consequtive hitting times of certain values of a Markov chain. And I do "understand" the ...
2
votes
0answers
58 views

Ito's formula applied to a stochastic function

The Ito's formula stated in my book is in the form $F(t,X_t)$, where $F: \mathbb{R}^{d+1} \rightarrow \mathbb{R}$ is a $d+1-$dimensional deterministic $C^{1,2}$ function and $(X_t)_{t \geq0}$ is a $d-$...
2
votes
0answers
84 views

Optimal Stopping for One-Armed Bandit with a Fixed, Known Payout.

I'm very new to bandit problems (apologies if I've formatted my question incorrectly), but I have to solve the optimal stopping of what I think is a very simple case. I have a bandit problem with one ...
2
votes
0answers
40 views

Comparing hitting time of two random walks

There are two random walks, $S^t_i=S^{t-1}_i+ X_i^t$ for $i=1,2$, $X^t_i$ i.i.d they have boundaries $h_1$ and $h_2$ respectively. I'm wondering if it's possible to calculate the probability that one ...
2
votes
0answers
144 views

Stopping times, open sets and Brownian Motion

Let $B_t$ be a brownian motion started at 0. I am trying to prove that $\tau$, defined as: $$ \tau = \inf\{t > 0 \mbox{ }|\mbox{ } \left|B_t\right| \geq \frac{1}{1+t} \} $$ is a stopping time with ...
2
votes
0answers
156 views

Stopping time and filtration

My question is as follow: Let $(\Omega,\cal{F}_\infty,\{\cal{F}_t\},\mathbb{P})$ be the filtred probability space. Further, denote $\cal{F}^*_t$ as the usual augmented filtration. Now, given a ...
2
votes
0answers
63 views

Lower bound for stochastic process

Suppose the non-negative stochastic process $(X_t,Y_t)$ is such that $E\{X_t - X_a | Y_u \in A \,\,\forall u \in [a,t] \} \geq Z(A)(t-a)$. Let $T_{A}$ be the time of a visit to $A$. Assuming that the ...
1
vote
0answers
32 views

How does $\langle M_{S(k) \wedge n}\rangle = A_{S(k) \wedge n}$ not follow by definition?

Probability with Martingales: What is the relation between $\langle M_{S(k) \wedge n}\rangle \ = A_{S(k) \wedge n}$ and $\{N_n\}, \{ N_{ S(k) \wedge n } \}$ being martingales? It seems that $$\...
1
vote
0answers
41 views

Prove $A^{S(k)}$ is previsible

Probability with Martingales: I have a different attempt in mind, but I'm guessing it's wrong because if it were right, the book would've used it. It seems that we must show that $$A_{S_k \...
1
vote
0answers
25 views

Is $B_{t\wedge H_a}$ bounded in $L^2$?

Let $a >0$, $(B_t)_{t\geq0}$ be a standard Brownian motion. Define the stopping time $$H_a := \inf\{t \geq 0 : B_t \geq a\}.$$ Then is the martingale $M_t$ where $M_t: = B_{t\wedge H_a}$ bounded ...
1
vote
0answers
23 views

Brownian Motion maximum process intuition

I am studying the maximum value of a Brownian Motion (BM) on an interval of time (as explained here between boxes 28 and 40) and I am having an issue aligning intuition with the mathematical result. ...
1
vote
0answers
17 views

Finding optimal strategy in time series game

Let $P_t$ be a time series such that $P_{t+1} = \alpha P_t+S_{t+1}$, where $\forall t\geq0 : S_t \sim N(0,\sigma)$ Consider the following game: In each round $t$, a player sees $P_t$ and decides ...
1
vote
0answers
19 views

Understanding of Second Arcsine law for Brownian motion

Ok I'm trying to understand the second arcsine law which states: Let $g_t:=\sup\{s\leq t:W_s=0\}$, then $$\mathbb{P}(g_t\leq s)=\frac{2}{\pi}\arcsin \left(\sqrt{\frac{s}{t}}\right )$$ This won't be ...
1
vote
0answers
28 views

expectation of stopping time in Wiener process

Let $(W_t)$ be a Wiener process and for $a>0$ define stopping time: $$\tau = \inf \left\{t>0: W_t + at = 5\right\}$$ a) show $\tau < \infty$ a.s; b) compute $\mathbb{E}\tau$. I have done ...
1
vote
0answers
43 views

Brownian Motion hitting time is finite yet has infinite expectation?

I've read that a hitting time of a Brownian motion (defined as $T_a = \inf\{t\ge0:W_t=a\}$ where $W_t$ is a standard Brownian Motion, i.e. a Wiener process), has the following two properties, which I ...
1
vote
0answers
33 views

Stopped process not uniformly integrable

I need to construct a counter example such that the process $\{X_n\}_{n \ge 1}$ is uniformly integrable; however, the stopped process $X_{\tau \wedge n}$ where $\tau$ is a stopping time, is NOT ...
1
vote
0answers
23 views

Stopped process of maximum stopping times

Suppose $X$ is an adapted process and $\tau_1, \ldots , \tau_k$ are stopping times such that $X^{\tau_1}, \ldots , X^{\tau_k}$ are all martingales. I want to show that then $X^{\tau_1 \vee \ldots \vee ...
1
vote
0answers
33 views

defining the stopping time sigma algebra

For a stopping time T, define $\mathcal{F}_T$ by $\mathcal{F}_T={A \in \mathcal{F}:A \cap \{T \le t\} \in \mathcal{F}_t, \text{for each t.}}$ Verify that $\mathcal{F}_T$ is a $\sigma$-algebra. ...