The tag has no usage guidance.

learn more… | top users | synonyms

3
votes
1answer
33 views

On the proof of lemma 1.2.4 of Stroock and Varadhan A question concerning stopping times

In the book Multidimensional diffusion processes, of Stroock and Varadhan one reads (page 23): This is the proof of $(i)$. Here the authors say Define $f_t$ on $(\{\tau \leq t\}, \mathcal{F}_t ...
1
vote
1answer
71 views

Does this game make you arbitrarily rich with probability one?

We toss a coin. If it's heads we win $\$ 1$, otherwise we lose $ \$ 1$. Fix some large sum. Will we be winning this amount with probability one at some point? We assume that we have infinitely many ...
3
votes
2answers
99 views

Stochastic variables independent given Tau

Say we have a filtration $(\mathbb{F}_s)$, and a stopping time $\tau$ w.r.t. to that filtration.Let $X_t$ be a continuous stochastic process (not required to be adapted to the mentioned filtration), ...
1
vote
3answers
2k views

Sum of two stopping times is a stopping time?

Let $\sigma$ and $\tau$ be two stopping times in $\mathscr{F}_t$ and let this filtration satisfy all the usual conditions. Question: Is $\sigma + \tau$ a stopping time? Attempt at a solution: I ...
2
votes
2answers
1k views

Expected stopping time of brownian motion

I've been looking at this for some time now and still have no sensible solutions, can somebody help me out please. Say I define the stopping time of a Brownian motion as followed: $$\tau(a) = \min (t ...
2
votes
1answer
27 views

Independence of a hitting time and the underlying stochastic process

While I was playing around with the Girsanov's Theorem I stumbled upon the following absurdity and I couldn't resolve it with the current knowledge of stochastic analysis that I have. $B$ being ...
2
votes
1answer
43 views

Find $\mathbb{E}_{X_0 = x} X_\tau$ for an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process $(X_t)_{t \geq 0}$ where $\tau = \inf\{t>0 \mid X_t \notin [a,b]\}$

Let $X_t$ satisfy the following SDE: $dX_t = X_t dt + \sigma dB_t$, $\sigma$ is a constant and $B_t$ is Brownian Motion. Find $\mathbb{E}_{X_0 = x} X_\tau$ where $\tau = \inf\{t>0 \mid X_t \notin ...
1
vote
1answer
23 views

Show that $\mathbb{E}\left[c_{\tau\wedge n}X_{\tau\wedge n}-\sum_{i=1}^{\tau\wedge n}c_i\mathbb{E}(X_i-X_{i-1}\mid\mathcal{F}_{i-1})\right]\le 0$

I am trying to go through a past exam paper but I don't know how to deal with stopping times since we only did 2 exercises in class... I got stuck, so I would really appreciate if someone could help ...
1
vote
1answer
62 views

Justifying a step in proving $M_{S\wedge T} = \mathbb{E}[M_T \mid \mathcal{F}_S ]$

$S,T$ are stopping times and $M$ is a (right) continuous martingale. My lecturer set this as an exercise and I am given a solution(essentially split $M_T = M_T \mathbf{1}_{S≤T} + M_T ...
0
votes
1answer
11 views

Expectations of stopping times in general

I have a very basic question: So for a stopping time $\tau$ with $E(\tau)<\infty$ we have $E(\tau)=\sum_{n=0}^\infty P(\tau>n)$, right? Why is that? Thanks!
3
votes
1answer
64 views

Markov and strong Markov properties

In my study of strong Markov property of an RCLL canonical Markov process I encounter the following definition: Suppose $Y_t:\omega\rightarrow \omega(t)$ is canonical Markov process with respect to ...
3
votes
0answers
61 views

A Markov Chain probability, conditioned on a random time.

My question: Upon reading theory about diffusion processes, i came across an argument which i believe simplifies to this: Say we have a Borel measurable set $A$ (if it matters you can set $A=\lbrace ...
1
vote
1answer
24 views

Rewriting probabilities as expectation

Consider the stopping time $\tau_a:=\lbrace{t>0| W_t >a\rbrace}$, where $W_t$ is a Brownian Motion. Define: $X_t:=W_{\tau_a+t}-W_{\tau_a}$. We have that $X_t$ is a Brownian Motion independent ...
3
votes
1answer
129 views

Find the distribution of $T_a=\inf\{n\ge 0: R_{n}\gt a\}$ for fixed number $a\gt 0$

Suppose $R_{n}=\sum_{i=1}^{n} X_{i}$ for $n\ge 1$ and $R_{0}=0$ , where $X_{i}\gt 0$ are independent and identically distributed. Find the probability law of the stopping time $T_a=\inf\{n\ge 0: ...
0
votes
1answer
28 views

Simple Probability Inequality with Stopping Times

Suppose $U_1,...,U_n$ are independent random variable with $\mathbb{E}[U_i]=0$. Define $Z_k:=\sum_{i=1}^k U_i$. Set $T:=\inf \lbrace k \in N \mid |Z_k|>2\alpha \rbrace$. Clearly $\lbrace T=k ...
1
vote
1answer
31 views

An Algorithmic approach to the secretary problem with unknown n

I've been reading about the secretary problem these days and I got the idea for the case when we know the number of applicants $n$ in advance. I'd like to know what would be an algorithmic approach ...
1
vote
1answer
35 views

$E[|X(t)|]\leq K\implies E[|X(\tau)|]\leq K $?

Let $X(t)$ be a stochastic process. Assume that, for every $t\leq M$, it holds $$E[|X(t)|]\leq K, $$ for some constant $K$. Let now $\tau\in[0,M]$ be random (stopping time). Is it true that also ...
1
vote
1answer
38 views

Distribution Stopping time under Brownian motions

Considering $W$ the canonical process on $C([0,1],\mathbb{R})$ and the row filtration generated by the coordinate process of $W$, I want to prove that ...
3
votes
0answers
30 views

Charaterize the $\mathcal{F}_\tau$ a sigma algebra for the stopping time $\tau$

Consider a stochastic process $X: [0, \infty) \times \Omega \to \mathbb{R}^d$ We define $\mathcal{F}_t = \sigma(X(s), 0 \leq s \leq t)$ The sigma algebra generated by the sets $\{\omega: X(s,\omega) ...
0
votes
1answer
31 views

Illegal lottery problem (Merging dependent bernoulli trials)

Suppose I am in a town that playing lottery is illegal. If I buy a ticket for 1 dollar, I will win the lottery with probability $p$. Each time I buy a ticket, the police may catch me and confiscate ...
4
votes
2answers
593 views

Density of first hitting time of Brownian motion with drift

I just started learning about Brownian motion and I am struggling with this question: Suppose that $X_t = B_t + ct$, where $B$ is a Brownian motion, $c$ is a constant. Set $H_a = \inf \{ t: X_t =a ...
0
votes
0answers
53 views

Secretary Problem - Optimal algorithm for expected value of candidate.

I recently encountered the secretary problem and there are essentiall two problems: Maximizing the probability of choosing the best candidate. Gnedin proved in his paper ...
-1
votes
1answer
32 views

Martingale: Show $p\{T<+\infty \}=1$.

Let $(X_i)$ i.i.d. such that $p\{X_i=+1\}=p\{X_i=-1\}=\frac{1}{2}$ and let $(S_n)$ the martingale define by $S_0=0$ and $S_n= X_1+...+X_n$. Moreover, let $$T=\begin{cases}\inf\{n\geq 0\mid ...
1
vote
1answer
25 views

How to show that consecutive hitting times are a sequence of stopping times?

Let $\{X_n:n=0,1,\ldots\}$ be a martingale with respect to a filtration $\{\mathcal F_n\}$. Let $A,B$ be nonempty, disjoint Borel sets and define $T_0=0$, \begin{align} S_n &= \inf\{m\geqslant ...
2
votes
2answers
50 views

“The first time a continuous local martingale grows in absolute value beyond $n$” is a localizing sequence

How can it be shown that, for a continuous local martingale $X$ defined w.r.t. the filtered probability space $(\Omega, \mathcal{A}, P; \mathcal{F})$, the stopping times $\tau_n := \inf \{t \geq 0 ...
2
votes
1answer
56 views

Laplace transform of stopping times

I am nearly done with a question: Let $(B_t)$ be a Brownian motion on $\mathbb{R}$. For a fixed $x >0$, let $\tau$ be a stopping time defined by $$ \tau = \inf \{t \geq 0 : B_t \not \in (-x,x) ...
0
votes
0answers
18 views

Expected difference between a process and a stopped process

Let $\tau$ be a stopping-time such that for some $t\geq 0$ the probability $P(\tau<t)=\epsilon$ is small. I am interested in quantifying the following difference $$E[f(X_t)] - E[f(X_{t\wedge\tau})] ...
2
votes
0answers
52 views

Brownian Motion Hitting Times

I am reading through Walsh's Knowing the Odds book and came across this problem. Let $B_t$ be Brownian motion. Find the probability that $B_t$ hits plus one and then minus one before time one. I am ...
2
votes
0answers
28 views

Limit of decreasing sequences of markov time (stopping time) is markov time?

Let $(\Omega, \mathcal{F}, \{\mathcal{F}_t\}_{t \geqslant 0}, \mathbb{P})$ be a filtered probability space and let $\tau_n \geqslant \tau_{n+1}$ be a markov time (stopping time) with respect to ...
1
vote
0answers
43 views

Proving Galmarino's Test

Galmarino's Test gives a condition equivalent to being a stopping time. It says: Let $X$ be a continuous stochastic process with index set $\mathbb{R}_+$ (i.e. each sample path is a continuous ...
2
votes
0answers
93 views

Brownian motion stopped at the hitting time of an independent Brownian Motion

While I was working on the exit time of planar BM out of a square I came across the following observation, which I cannot grasp. I define this exit time as $$\tau = \inf\{t \geq 0: \lvert B(t)\rvert ...
2
votes
0answers
32 views

2D Brownian Motion — Does this argument work?

Consider a 2D Brownian Motion $(X_1(t),X_2(t))$ starting at $(x_1,x_2) \in \mathbb{R}^2$. For every $s\geq0$, let $$\tau_s = \inf \left\{t \geq 0 \mid X_1(t) - x_1 > s \right\}\qquad Y_s = ...
1
vote
0answers
22 views

jump-diffusion hitting time

Suppose I have a stochastic process $dS_t= rS_t dt + \sigma S_t dW_t + dJ_t$ where $W_t$ is a brownian motion and $J_t$ a compound poisson process of parameter $\lambda$ with lognormal jump size, ...
0
votes
1answer
53 views

Escape probabilities in a random walk.

So, a lot of theory in symmetric random walks seems to concentrate on 'hitting/stopping times' and things like that. So I started wondering... How would I go about calculating the probability of ...
1
vote
1answer
24 views

Properties of Stochastic Interval

I'm reading "Limit Thoerem for Stochastic Processes" and finding it hard to calculate the Stochastic interval.For example : In proposition 2.10,$T$ is a stopping time: If $A\in\mathcal F_0$,I need ...
1
vote
1answer
33 views

Does Brownian Motion return to the origin infinitely soon? [closed]

Consider a standard unidimensional Brownian Motion $B_t$ (Wiener process). Fact: This process returns to the origin infinite number of times with probability one. Consider a stopping time $\tau = ...
2
votes
0answers
44 views

Why do we use an exponential Martingale for the stopping time of a BIASED random walk?

The following is a passage from the lecture notes: Let a simple random move to the right with probability $p$ and to the left with probability $q = 1 − p$. We want the probability that it hits ...
10
votes
3answers
856 views

What is meant by a stopping time?

TL;DR: is a stopping time some sort of event, or is it a point in discrete time, or something else entirely what is an example of something which is not a stopping time? is my understanding of the ...
0
votes
1answer
34 views

Brownian Motion Hitting Time Distribution

Define $\tau_a = \inf \left\lbrace t \geq 0 | B(t) \geq a \right\rbrace $ for some $a>0$. The problem is to show that $ \tau_a \stackrel{d}{=} \sqrt a\tau_1 $. What I've done so far: $$P(\tau_a ...
1
vote
1answer
48 views

Gambling Game martingale

State the optional sampling theorem for martingales and bounded stopping times. You start with a capital of £100 and bet repeatedly on the toss of a coin. On each toss you may bet any whole number of ...
0
votes
1answer
23 views

Expected Stopping Time for BM

I'm working on this homework problem for Brownian Motion. Suppose we define a stopping time $\tau_a = inf \left\lbrace t \geq 0 : B(t) = a \right\rbrace$ for some $a>0$. I already showed in a ...
3
votes
1answer
78 views

Tower Property for Expectations and Stopping Times

Let $(\Omega,(\mathcal{F_t})_{t\geq0},P)$ be a filtered proability space with $X\in L^1(P)$ and two stopping times $S$ and $T$. Show that \begin{equation*} ...
2
votes
1answer
31 views

First hit of a martingale

I came across this result somewhere and I don't grasp its proof in its entirety. Let $M$ be a continuous martingale such that $M_0 = 0$. Define $\tau_x = \inf\{t\geq 0: M_t =x \}$. Then, $$P\{\tau_a ...
3
votes
1answer
54 views

Brownian motion proof of Dirichlet problem

I am reading the proof of the Dirichlet theorem stated in the following form: Theorem: Let $D$ be a bounded domain in $\mathbb{R}^d$ such that every boundary point satisfies the Poincare cone ...
1
vote
1answer
20 views

Showing that a set is included in a filtration at a stopping time

The title may sound strange. Sorry for that but the question is short and easy to understand. I have a set $A \in \mathcal{F}_t$ where $(\mathcal{F}_t)$ is a filtration on some probability space. For ...
1
vote
1answer
21 views

Stopped brownian motion

Assume $B_t$ is a standard complex (or 2D if you wish) brownian motion and $\tau$ is a stopping time relative to $B_t$. I want to know if it is possible to construct another brownian motion $W_t$ such ...
0
votes
0answers
31 views

Cramér Lundberg Risk Model - exponential distribution of claim sizes

I am studying the classical ruin model, which express the insurance company free surplus at time $t$ as $C_t=u+ct-\sum_{i=1}^{N(t)}Y_i $ where: $ct$ is the premium income up to time t $u$ is the ...
2
votes
1answer
60 views

Density of running supremum of Brownian motion until a stopping time

I am stuck on an exercise in my book: The question relies on the following fact: Let $M$ be a continuous, non-negative local martingale such that $M_0=1$ and $M_t \rightarrow 0$ almost surely as ...
0
votes
1answer
32 views

Expectation of a Wiener process at a Stopping Time

I am working through an answer to the following question and do not understand an expectation which takes place at the end. $\textbf{Question:}$ Define the following stochastic process \begin{align} ...
0
votes
1answer
24 views

Expectation of a Wiener process at a Stopping Time - 2

I am working through an answer to the following question and I do not understand a statement given towards the end of the solution, specifically why $\tilde{W}(\sigma) = 1$. (This question is related ...