This tag is for questions about stopping times. Let $X = \{X_n : n \geq 0\}$ be a stochastic process. A stopping time $\tau$ with respect to $X$ is a random time such that for each $n \geq 0$, the event $\{\tau = n\}$ is completely determined by (at most) the total information known up to time $n$, $...

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Application of CLT to random walks

Let $X_1,X_2,\ldots$ be an iid sequence such that $P\{X_1 = 1\} = p$, $P\{X_1 = -1\} =p$ and $P\{X_1 = 0\} = 1-2p$. We have that $E[X_1] = 0$ and $E[X_1^2] = 2p$. Define $S_n = \sum_{i=1}^nX_i$ and $...
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Finiteness of the hitting time of random walk

Let $X_1,X_2,\ldots$ be an iid sequence such that $P\{X_1 = 1\} = u$, $P\{X_1 = -1\} = d$ and $P\{X_1 = 0\} = 1-(u+d)$. We have that $E[X_1] \neq 0$. Define $S_n = \sum_{i=1}^nX_i$ and $S_0 = 0$ and ...
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defining the stopping time sigma algebra

For a stopping time T, define $\mathcal{F}_T$ by $\mathcal{F}_T={A \in \mathcal{F}:A \cap \{T \le t\} \in \mathcal{F}_t, \text{for each t.}}$ Verify that $\mathcal{F}_T$ is a $\sigma$-algebra. ...
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1answer
47 views

Hitting times for Brownian Motion (2)

In this post there is shown that for a standard Brownian motion $\mathbb{E}[\tau^p]<\infty$ for all $p \geq 1$, where \begin{align} \tau = \inf\{t \geq 0 : B_t = \alpha \ \ \text{or}\ \ B_t=-\beta\...
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Hitting times for Brownian motions

Let $B$ be a standard Brownian motion and let $\alpha, \beta > 0$. Let \begin{align} \tau = \inf\{t \geq 0 : B_t = \alpha \ \ \text{or}\ \ B_t=-\beta\}. \end{align} It can be shown by defining ...
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Martingales with bounded increments

It is known that if $T$ is a stopping time such that $E[T] < \infty$ and $(M_n)$ is a martingale with bounded increments, i.e. $\lvert M_n - M_{n-1}\rvert \leq K < \infty$ for every $n$, almost ...
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Showing that the first hitting time of a closed set is a stopping time.

I found this exercise online: I am stuggling with the last part of the second exercise, that is I am not able to show that $\tau = \sup_i \tau_i$. Obviously we have that $\tau \ge \sup_i \tau_i$, ...
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Conditional Expectation.

Let $X$ be a random variable in $L^2(\Omega, \Sigma, P)$ and $\mathcal G$ a sub-$\sigma$-algebra of $\Sigma$. Prove that $E[(X-E[X\mid\mathcal G])^2] \le E[(X-E[X])^2]$. As conditional expectation ...
3
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65 views

Measurability of the zero-crossing time of Brownian motion

I have the following random time $\tau = \inf\{t > 0: W_t = 0\}$ where $(W_t)_{t\geq 0}$ is Brownian motion with almost surely continuous paths and $W_0 = 0$ a.s. I need to prove that $\tau$ is ...
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Gambling system theorem given by Doob

Let$\{X_n\}_{n=1}^{\infty}$ be a sequence of i.i.d. random variable. Let $\{\alpha_k\}_{k=1}^{\infty} $be a sequence of strictly increasing finite stopping times. Then $\{X_{\alpha_k+1}\}_{n=1}^{\...
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1answer
52 views

Stopping time $\sigma$-algebras

Let $\tau$ be a stopping time and fix $t \in \mathbb{R}_+$. Let $A \in \mathcal{F}_t$ satsify $A \subseteq \{\tau \leq t\}$. Now, I want to prove that $A \in \mathcal{F}_\tau$. A stopping time is a ...
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1answer
34 views

Stopping time and random variable measurability

Let $\sigma$ be a stopping time and $Z$ a $\mathcal{F}_{\sigma}$-measurable random variable. Now, I want to show that for any $A \in \mathcal{B}_{[0,t]}$, $\mathbb{1}_{\{\sigma \in A\}} Z$ is $\...
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1answer
31 views

If a stopping time, $T$, satisfies $P(T>k\alpha)\leq (1-\epsilon)^k$ then $E(T)<\infty$

Suppose that $T$ is a stopping time such that for some positive integer $\alpha$ and some $\epsilon>0$ we have for every $n$: $$ P(T\leq n+\alpha|\mathcal{F}_n)>\epsilon \text{ a.s.} $$ I ...
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75 views

Stopping time on an asymmetric random walk

Suppose that we are given an asymmetric random walk whose step is defined as $P(\xi_i = 1) = p$ and $P(\xi_i = -1) = 1-p$, where $p >1/2$. The hitting time, $T_x$ is defined as $\inf{\{n : S_n = x\...
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Taylor expansion and Ito when the value function has a non differentiable point

I am trying to solve a multi-period free boundary problem, of an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process, where each stopping decision at each period adds a different constant (penalty or bonus). Solving with a ...
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1answer
58 views

Submartingale and stopping time

Let {$X_1, \dots, X_n$} be a submartingale, and let $T$ be a stopping time for {$X_i, 1\leqslant i \leqslant n$}. Show that $ E(\mid X_T \mid) \leqslant 2E(X_n^+)-E(X_1)$. The corresponding result for ...
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31 views

Characterization of Moment Generating Function of Hitting Time

Suppose that $x_t$ follows the stochastic differential equation: \begin{align*} dx_t = (a - b x_t) dt + \sigma x_t dB_t \end{align*} Where $B_t$ is a standard one-dimensional Brownian motion, and $a,...
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1answer
25 views

For the continuous time case, is there any example such that $\tau_1, …, \tau_n$ are stopping times, but $\inf_n \tau_n $ is not a stopping time?

For the continuous time case, is there any example such that $\tau_1, ..., \tau_n$ are stopping times, but $\inf_n \tau_n $ is not a stopping time? We know if the filtration is right continuous, then ...
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1answer
43 views

$T$ stopping time, does $\mathcal{F}_T \subseteq \mathcal{F}_\infty$?

I am confused about the definition of $\mathcal{F}_T$, where $T$ is a stopping time. From three different books we find two different definitions: (Karatzas and Shreve; Protter) Events $A \in \...
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Application of Doob's optional stopping theorem to an elementary probability problem

The elementary probability problem is as follows. Let $(X_k)_{k\in\mathbb{N}}$ be a sequence of i.i.d. random variables such that $X_k \sim U(0,1)$ for each $k$. Define $\tau := \inf\{n\geq 0: \...
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1answer
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Expectation of product of iid random variables limited by stopping time

Let $X_1, X_2, \cdots$ be i.i.d. such that $X_i > 0$ and $\mathbb E[X_i]=1$ and consider $\mathbb F = \{\mathcal F_n\}_{n\ge 1}$ to be the discrete filtration. Denote $Y_n = \prod\limits_{i=1}^n ...
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Optimal strategy for a moment to take an exam

In my problem set there was an exercise involving optimal stopping theory. Here is the problem: There is an exam, a list of $n$ questions and $n$ students. Student $A$ knows answers to $k$ of them. He ...
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1answer
27 views

Absolute expectation of stopped martingale

Let $M_0,M_1,\dots$ be a martingale with respect to $X_0,X_1,\dots$ and $T$ be a stopping time with respect to $X_0,X_1,\dots$ Define $T_n=\min\{n,T\}$ and let $M_{T_n}$ be the stopped martingale. By ...
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29 views

Linear combination of stopping times

Let $\mathcal F = \{\mathcal F_n\}_{n\ge 1}$ be a discrete filtration. Given $\mathcal F_{\tau} = \{ A \subset \Omega : A \cap \{\tau \le n\} \in \mathcal F_n . \forall n \ge 1\}$ for any stopping ...
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41 views

Expectation of a stopping time on an asymmetric random walk

Let $X_1, X_2, \cdots$ be i.i.d. such that $P(X_i=1)=p , P(X_i=-1)=1-p$. Denote $\tau_a = inf \; \{ n \ge 1 : S_n = a \}$ for any integer $a$, where $\tau_a = \infty$ if $S_n \neq a$ for all $n \ge 1$....
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67 views

A counterexample for supremum of stopping times

Let $\mathbb{F} = \{ \mathcal{F}_t \}_{t \geq 0}$ be a continuous time filteration. $\tau : \Omega \to [0, \infty]$ is called an $\mathbb{F}$-stopping time if $\{ \tau \leq t \} \in \mathcal{F}_t$ for ...
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1answer
54 views

sigma algebra of a stopping time

Let $N$ be a stopping time. i.e $\{N=n\} \in \mathbb{f}_n \forall n$. $\mathbb{f}_n$ is the filtration. $\mathbb{f}_N=\{A\in \mathbb{f}, A\cap \{N=n\}\in \mathbb{f}_n \forall n\}$ is the sigma ...
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28 views

Existence of compensator process under the assumption of local integrability and finite variation

I am reading a proof regarding existence of compensators under the assumption of local integrability in which I don't quite understand: Definition: The compensator of a cadlag adapted process $X$ ...
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Different definitions of local p integrability for local martingales

When talking about cadlag (but not continuous) martingales and local martingales in the context of stochastic integration one can come across different definitions depending on the author. These are: ...
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1answer
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$L^p$ integrable local martingale is still $L^p$ integrable when stopped at localizing stopping times.

Assume that $X$ is $L^p$ integrable for $1\leq p\leq \infty$ (i.e., for all $t$, $X_t\in L^p$) and is also a (Cadlag) local martingale. If $T_n$ is a localizing sequence of stopping times for $X$. Is ...
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1answer
39 views

How to show a hitting time is finite almost surely?

A one-dimensional symmetric simple random walk starts at $S_0 = 1$. How to show with probability one it passes $x = 0$ (or I guess equivalently, the stopping time of hitting $x = 0$ at the first time ...
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1answer
42 views

Are stopping times the same?

In the context of stochastic integration, we showed how it's possible to define the stochastic integral $\int H dM$ for $H \in L^2(M)$ and $M \in \mathcal M^2_0$ (martingales null at $0$ such that $\...
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Stopping Time Sum of Random Variables

Let $X_1,...,X_t$ be an i.i.d. sequence of random variables with support $\{a,-b\}$, where $a,b>0$, and measure $P(a)=p_1$, $P(-b)=p_2$. Assume $p_1a-p_2b<0$, so that $E[X_t]<0$. Let $S_t=\...
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1answer
56 views

Random Walk Stopping Time 2

Let $(X_1,X_2,...)$ be i.i.d random variables, with $P(X_t=1)=P(X_t=-1)=1/2$. Then $S_t= \frac{1}{t}\sum_{i=1}^{t}X_i $ is a zero mean random walk. Let $\tau$ be the stopping time corresponding to ...
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2answers
42 views

Random Walk Stopping Time

Let $(X_1,X_2,...)$ be i.i.d random variables, with $P(X_t=1)=P(X_t=-1)=1/2$. Then $S_t= \frac{1}{t}\sum_{i=1}^{t}X_i $ is a zero mean random walk. Let $\tau$ be the stopping time corresponding to ...
2
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1answer
33 views

Find a Martingale in a game of exchanging hats

$n$ people play a game of exchanging hats, with the following two rules: --They throw their hats in to a pile and everyone chooses one uniformly at random, those who got back their own hat are out of ...
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Show that for every $p >0$, $E[\sup \limits_{t \leq L_n} |R_n(t)-t|^p]=O(n^{-p/2})$

I am trying to prove that $E[\sup \limits_{t \leq L_n} |R_n(t)-t|^p]=O(n^{-p/2})$ where $\rho(n)$ is a solution of the following Stochastic differential equation \begin{equation} \rho_n^2(t)=2 \int_0^...
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1answer
72 views

Filtration of stopping time equal to the natural filtration of the stopped process

Given a probability space $(\Omega,\mathcal{F},P)$ and a process $X_{t}$ defined on it. We consider the natural Filtration generated by the process $\mathcal{F}_{t}=\sigma (X_{s}:s\leq t)$. Let $\tau$ ...
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0answers
38 views

Proof finite stopping time and Wiener process bounded

Let $T_{-a,b}=\inf\{t\geq 0: W_{t} \notin [-a,b]\}, a,b>0$. I want to show that this is a finite stopping time ($P(T_{-a,b}<\infty)=1$) and that $|W_{\min(T_{-a,b},t)}|$ is bounded by a ...
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1answer
32 views

Strong Markov property with two stopping times

I have a diffusion $X=(X_t)_{t\ge0}$ and a stopping time $\tau$. From the strong Markov property I know that for any time $t\ge0$ (or a random time independent of $X$) I get that $$\mathbb{P}^{X_0}[X_{...
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1answer
56 views

Upper bound for random walk to show stopping time is bounded

I have a simple symmetric random walk (SSRW), and a stopping time: $\tau=\inf\{ n \geq 0 ~:~ |S_n|=N\}$. I am showing that $\newcommand{\ee}[1]{\mathbb{E}[#1]}$ $\newcommand{\pp}[1]{\mathbb{P}[#1]}$ ...
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1answer
76 views

How can a stopping time be independent of its stochastic process?

I was reading about a special case of Wald's equation, which led me to the following question: If $X_t$ is a sequence of iid RV's, and $\tau$ is a stopping time for this discrete stochastic process, ...
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1answer
123 views

Simple Random Walk: Hitting time of 1 is a.s. finite

Let $X_i, i \geq 0$ be i.i.d. random variables with $P[X_i=1]=P[X_i=-1]=1/2$ and consider $S_n = X_1 + \dotsc + X_n$ for $n \geq 1$, $S_0=0$, the symmetric simple random walk on $\mathbb{Z}$. Let $...
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1answer
58 views

If $\tau$ is a stopping time, then $E(X_{\tau})=?$

Let $\{X_n \in \mathbb{N}: n \in \mathbb{N}\}$ be a sequence of r.v. and $\tau_k=\min\{n\in \mathbb{N}:X_n=k\}$ Does $E(X_{\tau_k})=E(k)=k$? Any help would be appreciated.
4
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1answer
48 views

Stopping time in Markov chains

A random variable $T : \Omega \rightarrow ${$1,2,3...$} $\cup$ {$ \infty$} is called a stopping time if the event {$T=n$} depends only on $X_0 , X_1 ,X_2 ,..., X_n$ for $n = 0,1,2,...$ I have trouble ...
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1answer
38 views

Do we need to find an upper bound for the expectation of this stopping time?

From here: It looks like: It is supposed to say 'different from six' rather than 'different from three' $T = \inf\{m: X_{m} = X_{m+1} = X_{m+2} = 6\}$ In every triple $P(all \ 6) = 1/216$ ...
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2answers
86 views

Show $E[T] < \infty$ by finding an upper bound for $P(T=k)$

Given random variables $X_1, X_2, \ldots \stackrel{iid}{\sim} P(X_i = 1) = p = 1 - q = 1 - P(X_i = -1)$ where $p > q$ in a filtered probability space $(\Omega, \mathscr F, \{\mathscr F_n\}_{n \in \...
4
votes
1answer
98 views

Show that $P(T \le n + N \mid \mathscr F_n) > \epsilon$ where T is a stopping time

Given random variables $Y_1, Y_2, \ldots \stackrel{iid}{\sim} P(Y_i = 1) = p = 1 - q = 1 - P(Y_i = -1)$ where $p > q$ in a filtered probability space $(\Omega, \mathscr F, \{\mathscr F_n\}_{n \in \...
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votes
1answer
36 views

Order statistics for exponential random variables

Let $\tau_1, \tau_2, ..., \tau_K$ be i.i.d. exponential random variables with distribution $P(\tau_k<t) = 1 - e^{-\lambda t}$. Let $\tau^*_i$ be the $i^{th}$ order statistic. The p.d.f. of $\tau^*...
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46 views

Conditional Probability, Levy Process

Let $(X_t)_{t\in\mathbb{R}}$ be a (double-sided) Levy Process, i.e. $X_0 = 0$ almost surely, the functions $t\mapsto X_t\omega$, $\omega\in\Omega$, are right-continuous with left limits and the ...