0
votes
1answer
19 views

Is there an example that shows that the optional stopping theorem fails for finite (unbounded) stopping times?

Is there a martingale $M=(M_t)_{t\geq 0}$ and finite stopping times $S,T$ with $S \leq T$ a.s. such that $\mathrm{E}(|M_T|)<\infty$, but $M_S \neq \mathrm{E}(M_T|\mathcal{F}_S)$ a.s.? I found a ...
1
vote
1answer
33 views

Property of Brownian Motion's paths

We are considering a Brownian Motion $(B_t)_t$ with values in $\mathbb{R} $ starting from $x$ defined on the stochastic basis: $$(\Omega,\mathcal{E},(\mathcal{F}_t)_t,\mathbb{P}^x)$$ Then, let's ...
2
votes
1answer
57 views

Hitting time for Brownian Motion Surplus Process

I'm trying to solve this question for a continuous surplus process. The surplus process is $$U_s=U_0+s-B_s$$ where $B_t$ is a Brownian motion representing payouts, $U_0$ is starting capital, $s$ is ...
2
votes
0answers
50 views

Stopping times, open sets and Brownian Motion

Let $B_t$ be a brownian motion started at 0. I am trying to prove that $\tau$, defined as: $$ \tau = \inf\{t > 0 \mbox{ }|\mbox{ } \left|B_t\right| \geq \frac{1}{1+t} \} $$ is a stopping time with ...
3
votes
1answer
52 views

Extended (or augmented) stopping times

I am trying to prove that $\tau$, defined as: $$ \tau = inf\{t > 0 \mbox{ }|\mbox{ } B_t < t-1 \} $$ is a stopping time with respect to the filtration $(\mathscr{F}_{t+}^B)_{t\geq 0}$ where ...
2
votes
0answers
105 views

Stopping time and filtration

My question is as follow: Let $(\Omega,\cal{F}_\infty,\{\cal{F}_t\},\mathbb{P})$ be the filtred probability space. Further, denote $\cal{F}^*_t$ as the usual augmented filtration. Now, given a ...
3
votes
0answers
41 views

Markov chains and natural filtration

I have the following problem Consider a homogeneous Markov chain $(X_n)$ with countable state set $E$. Suppose that $A$ is a proper subset of $E$ and consider the stopping times $\tau^0=0 $ and ...
1
vote
0answers
37 views

Find an example such that $\tau$ is a stopping time and $\mathcal{F}_\tau$ and $\mathcal{F}_\infty$ differ on $\{\tau = \infty\}$.

I need to find an example such that the following is true: $\tau$ is a stopping time and $\mathcal{F}$ is a filtration defined on $\mathbb{R}_+$. Let $\mathcal{F}_\tau$ denote the stopped ...
0
votes
1answer
38 views

Stopping time problem - Show that T is bounded

Let $a< 0 < b$ and $W_t$ is Brownian motion $T_a$=inf{$t\ge$0|$W_t\le a$} $T_b$=inf{$t\ge$0|$W_t\ge b$} T=min{$T_a$,$T_b$} $1)$ Show that $T$ $<$ $\infty$ My attempt : ...
1
vote
0answers
33 views

Jump time of a previsible process is previsible?

Here is my question: In our setups, the filtration satisfies the usual condition. $V$ is an increasing process with only jumps (between the jumps it is flat). We also know that $V$ is right ...
0
votes
2answers
54 views

Show $L$ is not a stopping time

Let $L = \sup\{ n : n \le 10; A_n \in B \}$, $B \in \mathcal B$, $\sup\{\emptyset \}=0$. $(A_n)_{n \ge1}$ is a process adapted by a natural filtration $\{\mathcal F_n\}.$ Show that $L$ is NOT a ...
0
votes
0answers
43 views

Hitting time Distribution of a Gaussian Random Walk

I am trying to find out the exponential decay rate of the Probability $Pr(T>n)$ where $T$ is the first hitting time of a gaussian random walk with i.i.d random variables i.e. ...
1
vote
1answer
37 views

Stopping time problem

I have some difficulty understanding following problem. I need to show any non random time $T$ is a stopping time. I know that we have to show {$T\le t$} is $F_t$ measurable. When $t \le T$ this set ...
2
votes
1answer
50 views

Showing that a nonnegative integer-valued random variable is NOT a stopping time

Suppose that $\left(A_n\right)$ is an adapted process, and that $B\in\mathcal{B}$. Let $L = \sup\left\{n:n\leq10;A_n\in B\right\}$, $\sup\left(\emptyset\right)=0$. Convince yourself that $L$ is NOT ...
1
vote
1answer
55 views

Adaptedness of random variables

Suppose we have an RCLL adapted process $(X_t)$. Moreover we are given a stopping time $T$. We define $\mathcal{F}_T=\{A\in\mathcal{F}\mid A\cap\{T\le t\}\in \mathcal{F}_t, \text{ for all }t\ge0\}$. ...
2
votes
2answers
115 views

Wald's equation example controversy

I'm trying to get a grip of Wald's equation, applying it to the following example. Suppose, we have a simple sequence of fair coin flips, where heads wins us a dollar, while tails means loss of a ...
1
vote
1answer
147 views

Wald equality, expectation of a stopping time

Let $(X_n)$ be a sequence of iid random variables such that: $$\mathbb{P}(X_k=-1)=q \\ \mathbb{P}(X_k=1)=p=1-q$$ (two points distribution) Let $\tau$ be the first moment when number of successes ...
3
votes
1answer
96 views

Expectation of brownian motion at hitting time

Am i correct in my derivation? I want to calculate $\mathbb{E}B_{\tau_a}$. From the definition of the hitting time i get $B_{\tau_a}=a$, so $$\mathbb{E}B_{\tau_a}=\mathbb{E}a=a$$ I am new to the ...
3
votes
0answers
148 views

Essential supremum of a conditional expectation

Given the function \begin{equation} P(x,t) := \sup\limits_{t \le \tau \le T} E\left( g(X^{t,x}_{\tau}) \right) \end{equation} where $X^{t,x}$ is the unique solution to the SDE \begin{equation} X_u ...
2
votes
1answer
154 views

Conditional Expectation of martingale at stopping time

I am trying to understand the implications of the optimal stopping theorem, which is why I tought of the following problem. Consider the continuous-time Martingale $X = (X_t)_{t \geq 0}$ and the ...
2
votes
0answers
50 views

Lower bound for stochastic process

Suppose the non-negative stochastic process $(X_t,Y_t)$ is such that $E\{X_t - X_a | Y_u \in A \,\,\forall u \in [a,t] \} \geq Z(A)(t-a)$. Let $T_{A}$ be the time of a visit to $A$. Assuming that the ...
0
votes
0answers
39 views

Time after last jump and waiting time before the next jump of Poisson process

Consider $N =(N_t)_{t\geq0}$ a Poisson process of intensity $\lambda > 0$ and $(T_n)_{n\geq 1}$ its jump instants. Then consider for all $t \geq 0$, $Z_t = t- T_{N_t} \mathbb 1 _{\{ t \geq ...
0
votes
0answers
43 views

Conditional distribution of compounded Poisson process

Consider a Poison a process $N = (N_t )_{t\geq 0}$ of intensity $\lambda >0$ whose instants of jumps are $(T_n)_{n\geq0} $ $(T_0 =0)$ and a process $\tilde{N} =(\tilde N_t )_{t\geq 0}$ defined as ...
3
votes
1answer
114 views

find the Law of probability Stopping time $T=inf\{n\ge 0: R_{n}\gt a\}$ for fixed number $a\gt 0$.

suppose $R_{n}=\sum_{i=1}^{n} X_{i}$ for $n\ge 1$ and $R_{0}=0$ , that $X_{i}\gt 0$ Random variables Are independent and distributed.find the Law of probability Stopping time $T=inf\{n\ge 0: ...
1
vote
2answers
86 views

Showing that a hitting time is $\mathbb P-\text{a.e.}$-finite

Let be $\alpha, \beta \in \mathbb R$ such that $\alpha < \beta $ and $x \in [\alpha, \beta ]$. Consider the random time $$T_x = \inf \{ t\geq 0 : x+ B_t \notin [\alpha, \beta]\},$$ where ...
0
votes
0answers
100 views

First hitting time on a element of $\mathcal B ( \mathbb R^d) $ a (right, left) continuous path stochastic process

It's known that, given $\Gamma \in \mathcal B (\mathbb R ^d)$ and $X = > (X_t)_{t\geq 0}$ with right-continuous path, the random time $$T_{\Gamma} = \inf \{ t\geq 0 : X_t (\omega) \in ...
1
vote
0answers
27 views

Probability of winding number in 2D Brownian motion

Let $B_t$ be a 2D Brownian Motion with $B_0 = (1,0)$. Now, express $B_t$ in polars, that is, $B_t = (r(t), \theta(t))$. Let $\tau = \inf\{t > 0 : \theta(t) \geq 2 \pi \}$. What is $\mathbb{P}[\tau ...
1
vote
0answers
52 views

Bounding the expectation of monotone function of stopping times of Brownian motion

Let $X_t$ be a standard Brownian motion and let $Y_t:=X_t + \epsilon B_t$ where $B_t$ is an independent standard Brownian motion and $\epsilon>0$ is small. Let f be a monotone increasing function. ...
1
vote
0answers
61 views

Characterization of hitting time's law. (Proof check)

Under the same assumptions of this early question, consider also a the random time $T_a := \inf\{ t > 0: B_t \geq a\}$ which is a stopping time. Since $M^\lambda$ is a continuous martingale, Doob's ...
1
vote
1answer
50 views

Moving boundaries for Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes

Let $\tau(X_t)$ be the first-passing time to the moving boundary $a(t)$ for an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process $X_t$. I wonder how general an $a$ can be allowed in order to guarantee that $\tau$ becomes ...
1
vote
0answers
111 views

Brownian motion hitting probability

Let $B_t$ be a brownian motion and $g(t)$ a function of the time $t$. $B_0=0$. Let $\Phi$ be the c.d.f. of a normal distribution. At time $t$, the probability that $B_t > g(t)$ equals ...
2
votes
2answers
240 views

First hitting time for a brownian motion with a exponential boundary

Let $B_t$ be the standard Brownian Motion. Is the distribution/density of the first hitting time of $B_t$ for an exponential decaying boundary known? Trying to be more formal, if ...
1
vote
0answers
161 views

Hitting times and stopping times for cadlag processes

Let $X$ be a cadlag stochastic process. If $X$ is continuous, then I already know that $\inf\{t\geq 0: X_t \in C\}$ is a stopping time whenever $C$ is closed in $\mathbb{R}$. What if $X$ is only ...
0
votes
1answer
79 views

Show sequence of hitting times is sequence of stopping times.

Let $(M_t)_{t\geq0}$ be a continuous process, $\epsilon >0$ and define a sequence $(S_n)_{n\geq 0}$ by $S_{i+1}=\inf\{t > S_{i} : M_t - M_{S_i} > \epsilon \}$ and $S_0=0$. Clearly $S_0$ is ...
2
votes
1answer
226 views

Example of a martingale and a stopping time with $E(T)<\infty$ but $E(X_T) \neq E(X_0)$

Is there an example of a martingale in discrete time $X_0, X_1, X_2,\ldots$ and a stopping time $T$ so that $E(T) <\infty$ but $E(X_T) \neq E(X_0)$? With added assumptions on how $X_n$ behaves, ...
0
votes
1answer
73 views

Implications between $\mathbb P [\tau < \infty] =1 $ and $\tau \in L_1 (\mathbb P)$

We've got the usual filtered stochastic basis $(\Omega, \mathcal F, (\mathcal F_n). \mathbb P), \space \tau : \Omega \to \mathbb{N}\cup \{\infty\}, [\tau \le n] \in \mathcal F_n$ ($\tau$ is an ...
3
votes
2answers
264 views

Stopping time proof

Let $\{X_t, t \ge 0\}$ be a continuous stochastic process and adapted to the filtration $\{\mathcal{F}_t,t\ge 0 \}$ and consider $$ \alpha = \inf\{t, |X_t|>1\}, $$ the first time the the process ...
3
votes
2answers
147 views

coupon collector problem for different number of copies of each coupon type

I would like to pose a question on a variation on the classical coupon collector's problem: coupon type $i$ is to be collected $k_i$ times. What is the expected stopping time or the expected number of ...
6
votes
3answers
492 views

Why is stopping time defined as a random variable?

I've been given a crash course in stochastic processes and martingales for the purposes of a semester project on them. The guy I'm working with has been, I feel, a little vague in the definition of ...
2
votes
1answer
197 views

Doob's stopping time theorem with unbounded stopping time

Let $(X_t)_{t\geq0}$ be Brownan motion on $\mathbb R$, and $\tau$ is a stopping time adapted with the natural filtration generated by the Brownian motion. If $X_0=0$, $E(e^{\tau/2})<+\infty$. ...
4
votes
1answer
261 views

Stopping time and Brownian motion (specific example)

Let $B$ be a Brownian motion. I want to show that $$ \inf\{t\geq0 \mid B(t)=\max_{x\in [0,1]}B(s)\} $$ is not a stopping time w.r.t. the standard filtration. How can one intuitively see that this ...
1
vote
1answer
57 views

What is $1_{\{\tau_n>0\}}X^{\tau_n}$ process saying?

As title says, what is $1_{\{\tau_n>0\}}X^{\tau_n}$ process? I do have understanding of what stochastic processes are, but not sure what is this specific process saying.
3
votes
1answer
212 views

Favourable modification of “Double or Nothing”

I am working through 'Great expectations: the theory of optimal stopping' by Y.S. Chow, H. Robbins, D. Siegmund and cannot fill in the gap in reasoning regarding the existence of optimal stopping ...
3
votes
1answer
175 views

Optional sampling exercise

I came across the following exercise in Stochastic Calculus: Let $B=(B_t)_{t\geq0}$ be a standard Brownian motion. Let also $M$ be the following process: $M_t=B^4_t-6t(B^2_t-\dfrac{t}{3})$ for ...
1
vote
2answers
902 views

Sum of two stopping times is a stopping time?

Let $\sigma$ and $\tau$ be two stopping times in $\mathscr{F}_t$ and let this filtration satisfy all the usual conditions. Question: Is $\sigma + \tau$ a stopping time? Attempt at a solution: I ...
7
votes
0answers
158 views

Sufficient condition in terms of stopping times for a stochastic process to be a local supermartingale

(Question edited in response to Nate's comment) Let $(X_t)_{t\geq 0}$ be a continuous (or càdlàg), real-valued process, and define stopping times $\tau_{s,a,b}=\inf~ [s,\infty)\cap\{t:X_t\notin ...