This tag is for questions about stopping times. Let $X = \{X_n : n \geq 0\}$ be a stochastic process. A stopping time $\tau$ with respect to $X$ is a random time such that for each $n \geq 0$, the event $\{\tau = n\}$ is completely determined by (at most) the total information known up to time $n$, ...

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1answer
17 views

Prove $A_{\infty} < \infty$?

From Williams' Probability with Martingales How do we know that $A_{\infty} < \infty$? If $T = \infty$, then $$E[A_{T \wedge n}] \le (K+c)^2$$ $$\to E[A_{n}] \le (K+c)^2$$ $$\to ...
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0answers
14 views

Prove $|M_{T \wedge n}| \le c + K$

From Williams' Probability with Martingales Is $\sigma_k^2$ random (and not constant)? How can that be? As far as I know unconditional variance and unconditional expectations are supposed ...
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1answer
10 views

Strong Markov Property Brownian Motion for Non-Stopping Time

Let $B$ be a Brownian motion and let $\mathcal{F}^B$ be its natural filtration. Define the random variable $$ \tau = \inf\{ t \ge 0 \mid B_t = \sup_{0 \le s \le 1} B_s \}.$$ Now, $\tau$ is not an ...
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0answers
18 views

Expectation related to Wiener process using strong Markov property

Can you help me to understand a result I found in Krylov's book "Introduction to stochastic calculus". First, I will introduce some notations: $w_t,t\ge 0$ denotes a Wiener process. ...
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27 views

expectation of stopping time in Wiener process

Let $(W_t)$ be a Wiener process and for $a>0$ define stopping time: $$\tau = \inf \left\{t>0: W_t + at = 5\right\}$$ a) show $\tau < \infty$ a.s; b) compute $\mathbb{E}\tau$. I have done ...
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0answers
24 views

Brownian Motion hitting time is finite yet has infinite expectation?

I've read that a hitting time of a Brownian motion (defined as $T_a = \inf\{t\ge0:W_t=a\}$ where $W_t$ is a standard Brownian Motion, i.e. a Wiener process), has the following two properties, which I ...
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1answer
18 views

identity with Poisson process

I want to show (if it is true) that if $\tau$ is a stopping time and $\mathbb{E}\tau < \infty$ then $\mathbb{E}N_\tau = \mathbb{E}\tau$ for $N_t$ - Poisson process with parameter $1$. I started ...
2
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1answer
34 views

Brownian hitting time of a closed set

I am trying to prove that the first hitting time of a closed set H by a Brownian motion is a stopping time. I have found a proof that states: $$\{\mathcal{T}\leqslant t\} = ...
3
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1answer
49 views

Determine $E\sum_0^\infty X_n1_{(T=n)}$

$X_T = \sum_0^\infty X_n 1_{(T=n)}$ where $T$ is a stopping time and $(X_n)$ is a martingale. Show that if $T$ is bounded then $EX_T = EX_0$: $T \leq N$, and then consider $X_T = X_{T\wedge N} = ...
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1answer
15 views

Distribution of the first exit time of a one-dimensional diffusiom/ Brownian motion

I have a one-dimensional diffusion on $[0,1]$ and I need to calculate the distribution of the first exit time of the interval $(-\epsilon,\epsilon)$ for an $\epsilon > 0$. A good first step would ...
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1answer
26 views

Exercise on stopping times

Let $(Y_n)_{n \geq 1} $ be a sequence of independent r.v.'s s.t. $$P(Y_n=y) = {n \choose k } \left(\frac1n\right)^y \left(1-\frac1n\right)^{n-y}\quad {\rm if }\;y \in \{0,1,\dots,n\}$$ How to show ...
4
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1answer
45 views

Uniform integrability and stopping times

I want to know whether there is any example where $X_n$ is uniformly integrable, $N$ is a stopping time and $E[X_N] =\infty$? Or uniform integrability of $X_n$ implies that $E[X_N]< \infty$?
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0answers
17 views

Stopped process not uniformly integrable

I need to construct a counter example such that the process $\{X_n\}_{n \ge 1}$ is uniformly integrable; however, the stopped process $X_{\tau \wedge n}$ where $\tau$ is a stopping time, is NOT ...
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1answer
57 views

Counterexample for uniform integrability of a stopped process

I want to find an example where $X_n$ is uniformly integrable, $N$ is a stopping time, but $X_n^N = X_{\min\{n,N\}}$ in not uniformly integrable. There is a theorem saying that if $M_n$ is a uniform ...
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0answers
19 views

Stopped process of maximum stopping times

Suppose $X$ is an adapted process and $\tau_1, \ldots , \tau_k$ are stopping times such that $X^{\tau_1}, \ldots , X^{\tau_k}$ are all martingales. I want to show that then $X^{\tau_1 \vee \ldots \vee ...
1
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1answer
37 views

Martingale property cannot hold for general random times

Let $\sigma \leq \tau$ be two random times that are no stopping times. I want to create a simple example that shows that for these random times $\mathbb{E}[M_\tau \mid \mathcal{F}_\sigma] = M_\sigma$ ...
2
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1answer
31 views

Question regarding proof of property related to the stopped sigma-algebra.

I have a proof of a property regarding the stopped $\sigma$-algebra, where one part I do not understand, I'll highlight what I do not get, can you please help me? We have a probability space ...
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1answer
22 views

Martingale representation theorem , optimal stopping time and the principal agent problem

I am self-learning some Econ papers. Any suggestion will be appreciated. Even though the questions are from an Econ paper, they are math-related. I provide the economic interpretation as background ...
3
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2answers
27 views

Simple question regarding stopping times.

I have this exercise regarding stopping times, but I am not able to solve it. You have a probability space $(\Omega, \mathcal{F},P)$, with a filtration $\{\mathcal{F}_t\}$}. You have two stopping ...
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1answer
44 views

Showing a stopping time is finite

Let $T = \inf\{ n : S_n = a \text{ or } S_n = -b\}$ be a stopping time, where $S_n = X_1 + \dots +X_n$ and each $X_n$ is a martingale. I am looking at a proof which shows that $T < \infty$ almost ...
2
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1answer
33 views

Stopping Times, the $\inf$ is not a stopping time

I'm having a hard time figuring out why the infimum of a sequence of stopping times is not necessarily a stopping time itself. Indeed, the justification my book gives me is that: Given $(\mathcal ...
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1answer
58 views

Application of CLT to random walks

Let $X_1,X_2,\ldots$ be an iid sequence such that $P\{X_1 = 1\} = p$, $P\{X_1 = -1\} =p$ and $P\{X_1 = 0\} = 1-2p$. We have that $E[X_1] = 0$ and $E[X_1^2] = 2p$. Define $S_n = \sum_{i=1}^nX_i$ and ...
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0answers
34 views

Finiteness of the hitting time of random walk

Let $X_1,X_2,\ldots$ be an iid sequence such that $P\{X_1 = 1\} = u$, $P\{X_1 = -1\} = d$ and $P\{X_1 = 0\} = 1-(u+d)$. We have that $E[X_1] \neq 0$. Define $S_n = \sum_{i=1}^nX_i$ and $S_0 = 0$ and ...
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0answers
27 views

defining the stopping time sigma algebra

For a stopping time T, define $\mathcal{F}_T$ by $\mathcal{F}_T={A \in \mathcal{F}:A \cap \{T \le t\} \in \mathcal{F}_t, \text{for each t.}}$ Verify that $\mathcal{F}_T$ is a $\sigma$-algebra. ...
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0answers
26 views

Hitting times for Brownian Motion (2)

In this post there is shown that for a standard Brownian motion $\mathbb{E}[\tau^p]<\infty$ for all $p \geq 1$, where \begin{align} \tau = \inf\{t \geq 0 : B_t = \alpha \ \ \text{or}\ \ ...
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2answers
33 views

Hitting times for Brownian motions

Let $B$ be a standard Brownian motion and let $\alpha, \beta > 0$. Let \begin{align} \tau = \inf\{t \geq 0 : B_t = \alpha \ \ \text{or}\ \ B_t=-\beta\}. \end{align} It can be shown by defining ...
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1answer
22 views

Martingales with bounded increments

It is known that if $T$ is a stopping time such that $E[T] < \infty$ and $(M_n)$ is a martingale with bounded increments, i.e. $\lvert M_n - M_{n-1}\rvert \leq K < \infty$ for every $n$, almost ...
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2answers
101 views

Showing that the first hitting time of a closed set is a stopping time.

I found this exercise online: I am stuggling with the last part of the second exercise, that is I am not able to show that $\tau = \sup_i \tau_i$. Obviously we have that $\tau \ge \sup_i \tau_i$, ...
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0answers
42 views

Conditional Expectation.

Let $X$ be a random variable in $L^2(\Omega, \Sigma, P)$ and $\mathcal G$ a sub-$\sigma$-algebra of $\Sigma$. Prove that $E[(X-E[X\mid\mathcal G])^2] \le E[(X-E[X])^2]$. As conditional expectation ...
3
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1answer
57 views

Measurability of the zero-crossing time of Brownian motion

I have the following random time $\tau = \inf\{t > 0: W_t = 0\}$ where $(W_t)_{t\geq 0}$ is Brownian motion with almost surely continuous paths and $W_0 = 0$ a.s. I need to prove that $\tau$ is ...
7
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1answer
95 views

Gambling system theorem given by Doob

Let$\{X_n\}_{n=1}^{\infty}$ be a sequence of i.i.d. random variable. Let $\{\alpha_k\}_{k=1}^{\infty} $be a sequence of strictly increasing finite stopping times. Then ...
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1answer
42 views

Stopping time $\sigma$-algebras

Let $\tau$ be a stopping time and fix $t \in \mathbb{R}_+$. Let $A \in \mathcal{F}_t$ satsify $A \subseteq \{\tau \leq t\}$. Now, I want to prove that $A \in \mathcal{F}_\tau$. A stopping time is a ...
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1answer
33 views

Stopping time and random variable measurability

Let $\sigma$ be a stopping time and $Z$ a $\mathcal{F}_{\sigma}$-measurable random variable. Now, I want to show that for any $A \in \mathcal{B}_{[0,t]}$, $\mathbb{1}_{\{\sigma \in A\}} Z$ is ...
0
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1answer
30 views

If a stopping time, $T$, satisfies $P(T>k\alpha)\leq (1-\epsilon)^k$ then $E(T)<\infty$

Suppose that $T$ is a stopping time such that for some positive integer $\alpha$ and some $\epsilon>0$ we have for every $n$: $$ P(T\leq n+\alpha|\mathcal{F}_n)>\epsilon \text{ a.s.} $$ I ...
4
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2answers
65 views

Stopping time on an asymmetric random walk

Suppose that we are given an asymmetric random walk whose step is defined as $P(\xi_i = 1) = p$ and $P(\xi_i = -1) = 1-p$, where $p >1/2$. The hitting time, $T_x$ is defined as $\inf{\{n : S_n = ...
2
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0answers
40 views

Taylor expansion and Ito when the value function has a non differentiable point

I am trying to solve a multi-period free boundary problem, of an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process, where each stopping decision at each period adds a different constant (penalty or bonus). Solving with a ...
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1answer
56 views

Submartingale and stopping time

Let {$X_1, \dots, X_n$} be a submartingale, and let $T$ be a stopping time for {$X_i, 1\leqslant i \leqslant n$}. Show that $ E(\mid X_T \mid) \leqslant 2E(X_n^+)-E(X_1)$. The corresponding result for ...
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0answers
22 views

Characterization of Moment Generating Function of Hitting Time

Suppose that $x_t$ follows the stochastic differential equation: \begin{align*} dx_t = (a - b x_t) dt + \sigma x_t dB_t \end{align*} Where $B_t$ is a standard one-dimensional Brownian motion, and ...
1
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1answer
25 views

For the continuous time case, is there any example such that $\tau_1, …, \tau_n$ are stopping times, but $\inf_n \tau_n $ is not a stopping time?

For the continuous time case, is there any example such that $\tau_1, ..., \tau_n$ are stopping times, but $\inf_n \tau_n $ is not a stopping time? We know if the filtration is right continuous, then ...
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1answer
42 views

$T$ stopping time, does $\mathcal{F}_T \subseteq \mathcal{F}_\infty$?

I am confused about the definition of $\mathcal{F}_T$, where $T$ is a stopping time. From three different books we find two different definitions: (Karatzas and Shreve; Protter) Events $A \in ...
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0answers
33 views

Application of Doob's optional stopping theorem to an elementary probability problem

The elementary probability problem is as follows. Let $(X_k)_{k\in\mathbb{N}}$ be a sequence of i.i.d. random variables such that $X_k \sim U(0,1)$ for each $k$. Define $\tau := \inf\{n\geq 0: ...
1
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1answer
43 views

Expectation of product of iid random variables limited by stopping time

Let $X_1, X_2, \cdots$ be i.i.d. such that $X_i > 0$ and $\mathbb E[X_i]=1$ and consider $\mathbb F = \{\mathcal F_n\}_{n\ge 1}$ to be the discrete filtration. Denote $Y_n = \prod\limits_{i=1}^n ...
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0answers
35 views

Optimal strategy for a moment to take an exam

In my problem set there was an exercise involving optimal stopping theory. Here is the problem: There is an exam, a list of $n$ questions and $n$ students. Student $A$ knows answers to $k$ of them. He ...
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1answer
27 views

Absolute expectation of stopped martingale

Let $M_0,M_1,\dots$ be a martingale with respect to $X_0,X_1,\dots$ and $T$ be a stopping time with respect to $X_0,X_1,\dots$ Define $T_n=\min\{n,T\}$ and let $M_{T_n}$ be the stopped martingale. By ...
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0answers
27 views

Linear combination of stopping times

Let $\mathcal F = \{\mathcal F_n\}_{n\ge 1}$ be a discrete filtration. Given $\mathcal F_{\tau} = \{ A \subset \Omega : A \cap \{\tau \le n\} \in \mathcal F_n . \forall n \ge 1\}$ for any stopping ...
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0answers
34 views

Expectation of a stopping time on an asymmetric random walk

Let $X_1, X_2, \cdots$ be i.i.d. such that $P(X_i=1)=p , P(X_i=-1)=1-p$. Denote $\tau_a = inf \; \{ n \ge 1 : S_n = a \}$ for any integer $a$, where $\tau_a = \infty$ if $S_n \neq a$ for all $n \ge ...
4
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1answer
62 views

A counterexample for supremum of stopping times

Let $\mathbb{F} = \{ \mathcal{F}_t \}_{t \geq 0}$ be a continuous time filteration. $\tau : \Omega \to [0, \infty]$ is called an $\mathbb{F}$-stopping time if $\{ \tau \leq t \} \in \mathcal{F}_t$ for ...
0
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1answer
46 views

sigma algebra of a stopping time

Let $N$ be a stopping time. i.e $\{N=n\} \in \mathbb{f}_n \forall n$. $\mathbb{f}_n$ is the filtration. $\mathbb{f}_N=\{A\in \mathbb{f}, A\cap \{N=n\}\in \mathbb{f}_n \forall n\}$ is the sigma ...
0
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0answers
28 views

Existence of compensator process under the assumption of local integrability and finite variation

I am reading a proof regarding existence of compensators under the assumption of local integrability in which I don't quite understand: Definition: The compensator of a cadlag adapted process $X$ ...
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0answers
16 views

Different definitions of local p integrability for local martingales

When talking about cadlag (but not continuous) martingales and local martingales in the context of stochastic integration one can come across different definitions depending on the author. These are: ...