A stochastic, or random, process describes the correlation or evolution of random events. It is used to model stock market fluctuations and electronic/audio-visual/biological signals. Among the most well-known stochastic processes are random walks and Brownian motion.

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Checking if $B_t^3 $ and $3tB_t$ are martingales?

$$\mathbb{E}[ B_t^3 - 3tB_t + 3B_t | \mathcal{F}_s]$$ $$\mathbb{E}[B_t^3 | \mathcal{F}_s] - 3\mathbb{E}[t B_t | \mathcal{F}_s\}$$ $$\mathbb{E}[(B_t^3 - B_s^3 + B_s^3) | \mathcal{F}_s] + [ not \space ...
2
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1answer
28 views

Finding $b$ such that $e^{5B_t - bt}$ is a martingale

I have $X_t = e^{5B_t}$ and Where $B_t$ is brownian motion at time $t$. $M_t = X_t \cdot e^{-bt}$ I need to find a value for $b$ such that $M_t$ is a martingale. I am encountering difficulty, ...
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34 views

Jump-Diffusion Process: How to calculate the expectation of integral of S(t)

Having a jump-diffuion process $S(t)$ and the transition density $f_{dS(t)}(x)$. How can I calculate the Expectation of the integral of $S(t)$ between two instants $t_0$ and $t_1$? $S(t_0)$ is ...
6
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62 views

Filtrations and Sigma-Algebras and Stopping Times

In a previous post Filtrations and Sigma-Algebras I asked the question: $\textbf{Previous Question:}$ Let $\Omega=\{1,2,3\}, \mathcal{A}=\mathcal{P}(\Omega)$ and $P(\{\omega\})=\tfrac{1}{3}$ for each ...
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36 views

If there are two different stationary distributions, then there are infinitely many distributions in reducible markov chain

If there are two stationary distributions μ1 and μ2 there are actually infinitely many stationary distributions: (pμ1 + (1 − p)μ2) is also a stationary distribution for any real number 0 ≤ p ≤ 1. How ...
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18 views

Stochastic Integral martingale if no $dt$ term? [duplicate]

There is a proposition in my book that For a process $M_t$ to be a martingale, it is necessary that its stochastic differential $dM_t$ has no $dt$ term. Why is this exactly? My guess is that it ...
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1answer
10 views

Path of diffusion process with discontinuous drift

Let $(B_t)$ be a standard Brownian motion on some probability space and let $X_t$ be the process defined by the SDE $dX_t = \mu_t dt + dB_t$, where $\mu_t$ is adapted, deterministic, and only takes ...
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2answers
37 views

SDE Modeling: Ito vs. Stratonovich

In my SDE class last semester there were some hints that sometimes an SDE model makes more sense in the Ito sense, and sometimes in the Stratonovich sense. This was explained very briefly and vaguely. ...
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104 views

Show that $f(W_t)-\frac{1}{2} \int_0^t f''(W_s) \, ds$ is a martingale without using Itô's formula

I'm learning the basics about Brownian motion (I know nothing about stochastic calculus), and I've shown that if $W(t)$ is a standard Brownian motion, then $W(t)^2-t$ is a martingale. Now I'm trying ...
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18 views

Showing that $X_t = \int^{1/[X]_t}_0 f_u dW_u$ is a Brownian motion

Assume we have an Ito process $$ X_t = \int^t_0 f_u d W_u $$ where $f_u$ is a deterministic function of $u$ and $W_u$ is a Brownian motion adapted to $\lbrace \mathcal F_t \rbrace$. I want to show ...
2
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1answer
26 views

The finite-dimensional distributions of a centered Gaussian process are uniquely determined by the covariance function

Let $I\subseteq\mathbb{R}$ and $X=(X_t)_{t\in I}$ be a centered Gaussian process, i.e. - $E[X_t]=0$ for all $t\ge 0$ - $X$ is real-valued and for all $n\in\mathbb{N}$ and $t_1,\ldots,t_n\ge 0$ we've ...
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1answer
51 views

How to compute stochastic integral: $\int_0^t d(B_s^2)$

Here, $B_t$ is Brownian motion at time $t$ What property is used to compute the integreal $\int_0^t d(B_s^2)$? Shouldn't there be some other variable attached with the differential $d$ ?
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40 views

Deriving master equation for discrete process

Consider a group of $N$ professors, $Y$ of whom are wearing white socks and $X = N − Y$ others who are wearing black socks. On each time step, one professor is chosen at random and he has to put a new ...
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32 views

what does it mean that a system is attractive?

What does it mean that a system is attractive in the context of Statistical Mechanics? Is this notion related to the presence of some monotonicity properties?
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1answer
26 views

Two Poisson processes [closed]

Suppose we have two independent homogeneous Poisson processes with intensities $a$ and $b$. What is the distribution the number of arrivals of the first process strictly between $k$-th and $m$-th ...
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1answer
39 views

Is Brownian Motion increasing?

Given a process $Y_t = e^{B_t}$ We know that since Brownian motion is continuous for $t \geq 0$. Since $B_t$ is a completely random motion, it is true that we cannot say whether it is monotone ...
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1answer
51 views

How to calculate $\mathbb{E}((B_3-B_2)(B_4-B_{\pi}) \mid B_1)$ for a Brownian motion $(B_t)_{t \geq 0}$

I want to find the best predictor of $(B_3-B_2)(B_4-B_{\pi})$ given an observation of $B_1$ Where $B_t$ is brownian motion for time $t \geq 0$. I am not sure how to approach this. I know it will be ...
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23 views

Best predictor of Brownian motion

Let $B_t$ be brownian motion at time $ t \geq 0$. Then I want to find the best predictor of $B_8 + 4$ given that there are observations of brownian motion up to time $t = 1$. Approach: Essentially, ...
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1answer
21 views

Conditional expectation and brownian motion - check my answer please

$X = \frac{ B_1+ B_3 - B_2}{\sqrt{2}}$ and $Y = \frac{B_1 - B_3+ B_2}{\sqrt{2}}$ Where $B_t$ Is brownian motion at time $t\geq0$ I want to find $\mathbb{E} [Y + 3X | X]$ It is known to me that $X, ...
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21 views

Using Feynamn-Kac to solve expectation

I want to solve an expectation $u(t,x)=\mathbb{E}[exp(\beta X_T)|\mathcal{F}_t]$ related to a random variable $X$ which statisfied the CIR process $$dX_s=k(\alpha-X_s)ds+\sigma\sqrt{X_s}dW_s$$, which ...
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1answer
19 views

Independence of two random variables derived from a Brownian motion

If $X = B_1 + B_3 - B_2$ and $Y = B_1 - B_3 + B_2$ Where $B_t$ is Brownian Motion for $t \geq 0$ And I want to state with certainty whether $X$ and $Y$ are indep or not, do I simply just ...
3
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1answer
36 views

Distribution of Brownian Motion help

If $X = \frac{B_1 - B_3 + B_2}{\sqrt{2}}$ Where $B_t$ is brownian motion at time $t$. And I want to find the the distribution of $X$, how would I do so? $E[X] = 0$ is fairly straight forward. For ...
2
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1answer
80 views

Girsanov's theorem and absolutely continuous restrictions

Let $W$ be a Brownian motion on some probability space $(\Omega, \mathcal{F}, P)$. Let $\mathbb{F}^W$ be the filtration generated by $W$ and let $X$ be a process that is progressively measurable ...
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21 views

conditional expectation of a sum of two independent Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type processes

Consider two independent processes of discrete Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type, $X_t$ and $Y_t$: \begin{eqnarray*} dX_t&=&\theta_x(\bar{X}-X_t) + \sigma_xdB_{xt}\\ dY_t&=&\theta_y(\bar{Y}-Y_t) ...
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1answer
50 views

Exponential Martingales - Properties

This question relates to the exponential martingale, \begin{align} Y(t) = \exp\left(-\int_{0}^{t} \lambda(s)\,dW(s) - \tfrac{1}{2} \int_{0}^{t} \lambda^2(s)\,ds \right) \end{align} and specifically ...
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1answer
47 views

How to understand the definition of weak convergence of stochastic processes

I have some problems with the definition of $\textit{weak convergence of stochastic processes}$. To ask my question, we start with two well-known definitions corresponding to measures and random ...
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30 views

Why do we need to declare a probability measure for the definition of stochastic processes?

Let $(\Omega,\mathcal{A})$ be a measurable space $E$ be a Polish space and $\mathcal{E}$ be the Borel-$\sigma$-algebra on $E$ $I\subseteq\mathbb{R}$ $X_t$ be measurable with respect to ...
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2answers
86 views

Martingale representation theorem application

Let $X = \exp(W_{T/2}+W_T)$. I try to figure the adapted process $g(s)$ such that according to the MRT we have $$X = \mathbb{E}[X]+\int^T_0 g_s dW_s.$$ I can figure out $X = \exp(2W_{T/2}+W_{T-T/2})$ ...
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1answer
39 views

p.d.f. of a position variable from stochastic velocity p.d.f.

I have a stochastic process, $v(t)$, that represents a velocity, and has a known probability distribution function $f(x,t)$ which is time-varying. I am interested to acquire a probability ...
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28 views

Does this sequence converge? If yes, what is the limit?

Assume $\{k_n\}_{n\geq 0}$ a sequence of natural numbers such that $k_0=0$, $k_n\leq k_{n+1}\leq k_n+1$, and $\lim_{n\rightarrow\infty} \frac{k_n}{n}=\alpha\in(0,1)$. So $\{k_n\}$ is an ...
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1answer
27 views

proving independence of stochastic integrals

Does anyone know how to show that the stochastic integrals \begin{equation} \bigg\{ \int_0^1 \cos \Big[ (n- \frac{1}{2}) \pi t \Big] \,dW_t \bigg\}_{n \in \mathbb{N}} \end{equation} are ...
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2answers
30 views

Distribution of $\int^T_t \sigma (T-u)dW_u$ where $W_t$ is a Brownian motion

I am trying to find the distribution of $\int^T_t \sigma (T-u)dW_u$ where $W_t$ is a Brownian motion. One (very hand-wavey) way is to assume a priori that it is Normally distributed. Then one can ...
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1answer
16 views

Asymptotic stopping time for a ball-drawing problem

Take two different boxes, one with $N$ red balls and one with $N$ blue balls. Remove balls one at a time from either box with equal probability. When only one color is left, the (expected value of ...
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1answer
21 views

Construction of Probability Generating Function in Branching Process?

So I'm trying to construct a probability generating function for the following scenario: 1/5 of a rabbit population does not reproduce. 4/5 have 3 offspring each, and the probability of male or ...
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1answer
32 views

Properties of brownian motion

I was doing some revision and had an admittedly elementary question. My lecture notes say, the following are properties of Brownian Motion {$B_t$} (Normal or Gaussian increments) For all $s < t, ...
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1answer
44 views

Exponential Martingales

This is a two-part question concerning exponential martingales. It is stated that an application of Ito's lemma to \begin{align} \rho_t = \exp\left[-\int_{0}^{t} \lambda_s\,dW_s - ...
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1answer
63 views

Convergence of exponential Brownian martingale to zero almost surely

Define the exponential Brownian martingale as $N_t = \exp\left\{a W_t - \frac12 a^2 t \right\}$ which is a martingale with respect to the natural filtration of $W$ which stands for a standard Brownian ...
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29 views

Is there a name for this stochastic process?

Let $(\Omega,\mathscr{F},P)$ be a probability space and $\{X_n\}_{n\geq 1}$ be a stochastic process. Assume each $X_n$ only takes two values $0$ or $1$, i.e., $X_n:\Omega\rightarrow \{0,1\}$. Of ...
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1answer
33 views

Poisson Processes question

Let $\{N(t) : t \geq 0\}$ be a Poisson process with rate $\lambda\gt 0$. Let $Y$ be a random variable independent of $N(t)$, such that $Y = 1$ with probability $1/2$ and $Y = −1$ with probability ...
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1answer
16 views

Poisson Processes - What is the distribution of the number of arrivals $Z$ happening in the random interval of time $[0,T]$?

Let $\{N(t) : t \geq 0\}$ be a Poisson process with rate $λ$, and $Z$ represent the number of arrivals in the interval of time $[0,t]$. Let $T$ be a random variable, exponentially distributed with ...
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1answer
58 views

Distribution of a transformed Brownian motion

Let $W$ be a standard Brownian motion. From an earlier proven result I know that $N_t = \exp\left\{a W_t - \frac12 a^2 t \right\}$ defines a martingale on the natural filtration of $W$ for all $a \in ...
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15 views

Book recommendation needed: asymptotic behavior of non-stationary Markov chain

Is there any stochastic process textbook which covers some standard results for non-stationary Markov chain? For my purpose, countable state space is enough. Thanks!
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1answer
29 views

Calculate $\mathbb{E}(T^2)$ and $\mathbb{E}(\int_0^T X_s \,d s)$ for exit time $T$ of Brownian motion $(X_t)_{t \geq 0}$

Let $T$ be the exit time of from the interval $[-b,a]$ of a standard Brownian Motion $X_t$, then how would we go about calculating the following two expectations: $E[T^2]$ (and) $E[\int_0^T X_tds]$? ...
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33 views

Measurability of the event that Brownian motion hits a given set

Let $W$ be a Brownian motion in $\mathbb{R}^{2}$ on a probability space $\left(\Omega,\mathcal{F},\mathbb{P}\right)$ . Let us assume $\mathcal{F}$ is the sigma-algebra on the path space ...
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8 views

Point processes that are not Cox?

Can some provide examples of point processes that are not Cox? A Cox process is a doubly stochastic poisson process with random intensity.
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92 views

Prove $\mathbb{P} \left( \sup_{t \geq 0} M_t > x \mid \mathcal{F}_0 \right) = 1 \wedge \frac{M_0}{x}$ for a martingale $(M_t)_{t \geq 0}$

Let $M$ be a positive, continuous martingale that converges a.s. to zero as $t$ tends to infinity. I now want to prove that for every $x>0$ $$ P\left( \sup_{t \geq 0 } M_t > x \mid \mathcal{F}_0 ...
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1answer
67 views

Supremal distribution of positive continuous martingale, which converges to zero a.s.

So the question is as follows: Let $M$ be a positive continous martingale, converging a.s. to zero as $t \rightarrow \infty$. Prove that for every $x>0$: $\mathbb{P}\{\sup_{\{t \geq 0 \}} M_t > ...
0
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0answers
23 views

Relationship between distributions of correlations $\rho(X^1,Y^1)$ and $\rho(X^2,Y^2)$ if $X^2=WX^1$, $Y^2=WY^1$ and $W$ is a known stochastic matrix?

I have been stacked for a while with the following problem: Consider two samples of iid observations $X^1=\{X_1^1,\dots,X_n^1\}$ and $Y_1=\{Y_1^1,\dots,Y_n^1\}$ where $X_i^1 \sim \mathcal{N}(0,1)$ and ...
3
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1answer
54 views

Reference request for stochastic process

I studied the book, "Probability, Random Variables and Random Signal Principles" by Peyton Peebles. And I am a little bit familiar with statistical analysis like signal estimation and detection. In ...
3
votes
1answer
38 views

If two stochastic processes are modifications of each other and almost surely continuous from the right, then they are undistinguishable

Let $(\Omega,\mathcal{A},\operatorname{P})$ be a probability space $I\subseteq\mathbb{R}$ $E$ be a metric space and $\mathcal{E}:=\mathcal{B}(E)$ be the Borel-$\sigma$-algebra on $E$ $X:=(X_t)_{t\in ...